NFD+overs facing flop raise multi-way on coordinated board

[couriermike]

Fold the flop? All-in? How do you play this?

UTG is the flop raiser, he is 30/5/2 over 100 hands. He hasn't done anything nutty. His fold to c-bet is 0, but only over a sample size of 5. This is the first time he has raised a c-bet. He limp-called pre and could easily have 2 pr+. I don't know if he would limp-call pre with TT and I doubt he would raise here with 1 pr but I don't know.

The third player is 60/20/1. He could have anything.

Just calling the flop raise would be pot odds of 3:1.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($2)
BB ($11.71)
UTG ($10.09)
Hero (MP) ($11.83)
CO ($13.48)
Button ($8.99)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
UTG calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.45, 1 fold, Button calls $0.45, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.50) 6, 9, 7 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, UTG raises to $3.30, Hero ?

[chinz]

Both ways are OK imo, either raising or just calling and hoping to keep the pot 3way. I'd usually just call. We don't really have a lot of folding equity and our overcard outs might not be good.

Why fold? If he has straight, set or lower FD we are stacking him every time we hit. The (small?) chance that button comes along when we call is great for our implied odds.

[Chi-mac79]

This is a pretty tough spot with another player in the hand. If this were heads up I would prolly just ship it and hope to hit but 3 way makes it a bit more dangerous. I would prolly just see the turn and fold to a big turn bet if I brick. Once you brick on the turn it will most likely cost your stack to see the river and calling off your stack with 1 card to come might be a bit loose. A fold on this flop isnt horrible but I think at this point your hand is a bit too strong to fold. I would have to do some math but folding might be the only bad option here. A shove or a call should both be okay.

[given1982]

Just don't fold.

[zayphod]

He may be going nuts with 88 as well (str8 draw etc). If he has a str8 draw then its off to the races. If he has on overpair you are in good shape, if he has a set you are in bad shape though. I call at least the flop raise.

giving him the following ultra conseravtive range of things that i think he makes this move with (I discount him having 8T or 85 combo's) you have 50% equity in the pot anyway.

Board: 6s 9c 7c

equity
Hand 0: 50.881% { 66+, KJs, JTs }
Hand 1: 49.119% { AcQc }

if you give him one of the 3 possible sets on the board though you are toast equity wise and really need 3:1 to call so a shove might be in order to get the rest of his stack in.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by Chi-mac79

This is a pretty tough spot with another player in the hand. If this were heads up I would prolly just ship it and hope to hit but 3 way makes it a bit more dangerous.

Actually it makes shipping a draw better when it's multiway. If this were heads up, our FE would (still) be close to zero, there wouldn't be dead money and there wouldn't be chance to get money in 3way.

Just to (try to) keep the third guy in the pot, I'd just call this.

if you give him one of the 3 possible sets on the board though you are toast equity wise and really need 3:1 to call so a shove might be in order to get the rest of his stack in.

What are you trying to say? Shove is only good if we know that both of them are calling OR we think there's a good chance that both of them are folding. If you think that sets are big part of their range, shoving is just about the worst way to play this. You are gonna stack sets anyway when you hit, you don't want to put money in as a huge dog.

Your equity calcs are also wrong, you have included all KJs and JTs... I doubt he's not stacking off with KhJh for example.

Also, he's UTG so not all hands are as often in his limp-calling range. I'd say he has set here at least 30% of the time, even though sets are <10% of the range you're putting him on. He could also have limped with suited connectors and have something like TP+oesd a lot.

If I was thinking this situation real time, I'd assume that we have about 10 outs (sometimes our overpair outs are good + FD). I think that in a situation like this you can count 6 overpair outs as ~2 outs against his calling range, if you're thinking about pushing this flop.

I made some calculations against some kind of range, I left some overpairs out on purpose (they are not too likely part of his range, I tried to balance that) and of course there is other hands he could have, but anyway...

Board: 6s 9c 7c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.859% 60.13% 00.73% 19049 231.00 { KK+, 99, 77-66, KcJc, JcTc, T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s }
Hand 1: 39.141% 38.41% 00.73% 12169 231.00 { AcQc }

I think this is closer to our realistic equity, but it might still be a little too optimistic just because you see sets A LOT in this situation. I'm too tired (it's 7am, just got home from nightshift...) to do the maths but pushing this is close to breakeven play even if BTN folds 100% and you have 0% FE over UTG. So if you feel like gambool feel free to shove.

[GreenJoker]

Nothing wrong with betting this Flop with nut flush and two overs but when a passive villain raises expect a set or 10-AA alot.

Call but if you brick turn FOLD!

[zayphod]

Originally Posted by chinz

Your equity calcs are also wrong, you have included all KJs and JTs... I doubt he's not stacking off with KhJh for example.

So if you feel like gambool feel free to shove.

ugh rough morning. yep frigged up the calcs . Either way I am willing to gambool in this spot .

If you call and miss the turn are you going to put the remainder of your stack in or just check/fold and give up all the equity in the pot (about half of your stack is now in the middle with the nut flush draw still out there).

Because if you do call, and the turn blanks, I think it is safe to assume the villain is shoving as there will be close to $10 already in there. And (assuming the other player folded) you are now going to ignore the at worst 3:1 odds and lay it down? And of course if you dont ignore those odds then you might as well have just shoved on the flop. The outcome is the same .

[couriermike]

Against a set we're 25%, vs 2 pr or a str8 36%, vs A9 46%, and vs TT 52%.

If we shove and button folds and UTG calls, which is reasonable, then we're risking another 86 blinds (we have him covered) to win a total of 217 blinds, giving us pot odds of 2.5:1 and so to break even we'd need equity of 40%. So the shove is good against a 1 pr hand and bad against 2 pr+.

I did shove even tho afterwards I felt I should've been able to tell from the preflop action that he doesn't c/r that flop with a 1 pr hand. I don't think he limps TT+ and he probably doesn't c/r A9, say, he'd just call or donk out himself.

I never even considered just calling, not sure why. We have pot odds of almost 3:1 to call the flop raise, but we're at best 4:1 to hit our flush on the turn (the 6c could be counterfeited). But with implied odds, calling is best.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by couriermike

Against a set we're 25%, vs 2 pr or a str8 36%, vs A9 46%, and vs TT 52%.

I never even considered just calling, not sure why. We have pot odds of almost 3:1 to call the flop raise, but we're at best 4:1 to hit our flush on the turn (the 6c could be counterfeited). But with implied odds, calling is best.

Yeah. We have 7 clean outs (against sets) and we are calling $2.30 to win a pot that would be something like $20 by avarage (of course sets still have 10 redraw outs).

While shoving here is close to breakeven, I believe that calling is clearly a winning play in the long run. That's why I said I'd rather call.

If we were OOP to UTG shoving would be better, because it's hard to get all the money in OOP if we hit.