Would you Pot Control Here?

[kgu1]

No reads on villain. Would you pot control here? I'm not pot controlling here b/c I'm scared of the J. I would hate folding if I get reraised. Also, would this spot be considered as a "small hand, small pot" situation?

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($23.05)
UTG ($13.90)
MP ($30.35)
Hero (Button) ($20.50)
SB ($18.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
1 fold, MP calls $0.20, Hero bets $0.90, 1 fold, BB calls $0.70, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.10) 8, 5, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.55, BB calls $1.55

Turn: ($5.20) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

[zayphod]

I fire one more ($3.50 )just in case he is drawing. I think if you check then he knows you don't have a J and can pretty much fire away on a safe river and leave you in a tricky spot.

If he calls then he will almost certainly check to you on the river, thus allowing you to still exercise pot control without yielding the initiative, or in the event he bets into you then you can be fairly safe in assuming your hand is not good.

my 2cents

[chinz]

My method of "pot controlling" here has 3 steps in it:

1) click the "pot" button above betslider
2) ?? (adjust the betsize to $3.50-4.00 range)
3) click "bet" button


In other words, bet for value. If he had JX with FD then so be it, there's still tons of value in betting.

[urbansprawler]

I'd bet $2.50

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

I'd bet $2.50

If we bet that small, we have to call a raise/shove just because they might decide to do it with 2 overcard+FD or something like that.

He will still call with any 8x (our line looks a lot like FD or just BS), and any FD which are by far the biggest part of his range. There's no reason to bet that small imo.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

If we bet that small, we have to call a raise/shove just because they might decide to do it with 2 overcard+FD or something like that.

He will still call with any 8x (our line looks a lot like FD or just BS), and any FD which are by far the biggest part of his range. There's no reason to bet that small imo.

The reason to bet 2.50 is because of most villain's range is not an 8, but rather a 5, a 3, and hands that beat u combo wise.

Lol, why would you have to call a raise here ever? Betting small gives you more of a chance to get away, so you should be folding more often if anything.

And why would he c/c 2 OC's + FD on flop and then decide to raise turn when his equity is lowered...

Flush draws are by far biggest part of his range? Loool, I think you misread the hand history There is one flush draw (2 hearts) on the board and mathematically, flush draws are very rare, especially in a HU pot. For every 12 8-X permutations in his range, there is only 2 permutations of a flush draw. I know we should be using combinations as it is more accurate at times, but permutations get the point across.

If he calls on flop with any 5, any 8, and some 3's, and all flush draws, then the majority of his range is hands that beat us and <8's. Thus, you must devise your strategy to keep him in with his weaker hands. $2.5 looks significantly weaker than $4, for example. $3 is fine as well, but mentally it registers strong as it is big relative to the pot size.

This is not a spot where you can bet strong to isolate a part of someone's range and fold out the majority because the times they call you with that % of their range outweigh when they fold.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Lol, why would you have to call a raise here ever? Betting small gives you more of a chance to get away, so you should be folding more often if anything.

Because a small raise looks like scared 8x or 99-TT exactly and a decent thinking player might shove hands like gutshot+fd or overs+fd over our smallish turn bet.

In NL20 that isn't really a big problem, we can and should be folding to a turn raise... but you still don't want to induce it (unless you're calling). Why induce something you don't want?

Our betsizing doesn't significantly change his calling/raising range (except him shoving draws when we look weak) and we ARE ahead of his continuing range, so we should bet bigger. Betting "normal size" also makes your hand look less transparent and IMO makes it even more likely that small PPs or 8x calls another bet. (because it's not likely that you bet so small with FDs [when you have the option to take a free card], which are the only hands in your range they still beat)

River is the part where this becomes more interesting (if the draw misses). In HU I would shove almost any non-heart river for value, but in 6max (especially in microstakes) that would very likely be a losing play.

and why would he c/c 2 OC's + FD on flop and then decide to raise turn when his equity is lowered...

I have shoved rivers with missed draws or midle pairs that I knew were never good in that spot... Do I really have to tell you why? Actually, that turn card might have given him a lot more equity, in the form of folding equity.

For example, against the hand we had here, TT, their flop shove with FD would have been -EV, but on the turn it suddenly becomes +EV... and it has nothing to do with their hand's "real" equity against our hand.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

Because a small raise looks like scared 8x or 99-TT exactly and a decent thinking player might shove hands like gutshot+fd or overs+fd over our smallish turn bet.

In NL20 that isn't really a big problem, we can and should be folding to a turn raise... but you still don't want to induce it (unless you're calling). Why induce something you don't want?

Our betsizing doesn't significantly change his calling/raising range (except him shoving draws when we look weak) and we ARE ahead of his continuing range, so we should bet bigger. Betting "normal size" also makes your hand look less transparent and IMO makes it even more likely that small PPs or 8x calls another bet.

Your statements make no sense. If you think for some god knows what reason, he raises his draws then it's GOOD WE ARE +EV!!! LOL

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Your statements make no sense. If you think for some god knows what reason, he raises his draws then it's GOOD WE ARE +EV!!! LOL

Betting small on the turn induces semibluff raises
-> You don't want semibluff raises, because you'd fold the best hand to them
-> You don't bet small.

What is really so difficult to understand about this?

Betting small looks more like a weak made hand, not a draw. That means he is more likely to fold VERY weak made hands, and more likely to raise with draws because he thinks he has folding equity. That is of course assuming that he's a thinking player. Even against a bad player, betting weak always induces more bluffs than betting strong.

But the most important reason for betting bigger is value. Unless he has a FD with J, he should ~never have us beat here. He will still call with 8x, possibly small PPs and any flushdraws. Betting less than half the pot would be just stupid.

[kgu1]

Thanks for the response guys. I've read your comments and I've thought a lot about this hand. First off Chinz, if I bet $2.50, I definitely don't have to call a shove. I'm almost always beat in that case. Second, if I were to bet, I'd probably bet between $3.00 to $3.75; for value and to charge him for drawing.

Now... let's look at this hand given the fact that villain is your standard donkish 20NL player...

On this hand, I'm beating any flush draw that doesn't contain Jh, I'm beating any high cards float he may have done (except with a Jack of course), and I'm beating 66, 77, and 99.

What I'm not beating is any Jack, a set, and JJ+. JJ+ is uncommon in this hand because of the pre-flop play.

So with all this said, I believe that I should have bet; in order to charge the flush draw and possibly get value from 66, 77, and 99. Again, I'm betting between $3.00 and $3.75 here and folding to a reraise.

As for villain reraising with a combo draw? Haha... this is 20NL, let's get real, these players aren't thinking about semi-bluffing... so I'm not worried about that.