Stack off here?

[couriermike]

Villain is a good winning tag, 21/16/3. On this drawy flop, I'm committed with my overpair. OK to stack off here?

[chinz]

With his stat is T9s is less likely and he would probably 3bet 99-TT (what's his 3bet stat?)... that only leaves 22 as his likely hand (yes, we do see those other ones a lot too). So I think it's OK to get it in with those stacks.

On the other hand, even if he has a draw, he has a lot of combo draws... at least gutter or overcards to your hand.

[kgu1]

I'd fold, only b/c you stated that villain is a decent player. The only hands you're beating are AT, KT, and a FD w/ one over. You haven't invested too much in this hand, I'd wait for a better spot.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by kgu1

I'd fold, only b/c you stated that villain is a decent player. The only hands you're beating are AT, KT, and a FD w/ one over. You haven't invested too much in this hand, I'd wait for a better spot.

Yeah, but with little logical thinking you could assume that those hands are the ones he most likely has...

AT, overs+FD, gutter+FD, 22 etc. are the most likely hands in his range. Hands like 99, TT and 9T are much less likely. He has AF 3, which means he does some (semi)bluffing postflop. If he has very low 3bet-% or his AF would be lower, this would be closer to a fold.

"Waiting for a better spot" should (almost) never be your reasoning for folding or not bluffing in some +EV spot. It's wrong way to think about poker, in my opinion.

If you are playing HU against someone who is completely awful and you'd believe he will quit you if he doubles up, you can fold in a spot where you think stacking off would be approximately break-even against his range, but otherwise that is never a good excuse.

If you think that stacking off here is -EV against his range, you should fold. If you think it's marginal (but +EV) against his range, you shouldn't fold just to avoid variance. Even if you'd somehow know that it would be completely breakeven between raising and folding, you should be raising just for the metagame purposes.

I am not saying that you're opinion is wrong or mine is right about this exact situation. It could be good just to let this one go, but not for the reason you said.

Overall, sticking to "if not sure, just fold" strategy, especially when multitabling, seems to be best for results (at least for me)... but you should still be thinking and doing EV calcs about spots like this, after you've quit your game. That way the most +EV way becomes more obvious to you in the long run, even while you're mindlessly multitabling.

[AdrienD]

if you think he will cold call your preflop raise with ATo AND reraise that flop with KTs/AT then you should get it in.

If not, then you are behind and should fold.

I don't think a standard TAG at 10NL is 3betting 99/TT often at all if he even does it.
the average 3betting range at these stakes is AK/JJ+

[chinz]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

I don't think a standard TAG at 10NL is 3betting 99/TT often at all if he even does it.
the average 3betting range at these stakes is AK/JJ+

I know, that's why I didn't say he should never have them. Just said that they are less likely than 22 or KQs for example.

I'd say that avarage TAGs are also raising at least AQ and TT in addition to those (for value).

[given1982]

I'd probably fold this. You opened UTG, and villain raised the flop with the 3rd player (whom you should have told us something about) left to act. You say he's good, so I think he's flipping with you or crushing you. Lol at thinking that he's raising AT here.

[urbansprawler]

Yeah, wtf? How do you think he ever has AT? That's like...not even a remote possibility if he's good IMO. You are showing enormous strength here by betting this wet board and repping an overpair. I think you're often against sets and draws.

Now, alternatively, instead of bettingthis flop, you can check and see a very nice turn where you put your money in as a big favorite now. Checking here also protects the time you have AK/AQ so that villain cannot just indiscriminately bet into you every time you check. TBH, if I'm betting this flop, I expect to be c/r'ed by at least one guy and I probably wouldn't even do it with aces because your villain doesn't have a suitable calling hand enough to outweigh the times he has something like a flush draw. Versus passive opponents, I would bet always but versus aggressive regulars, it's often best not to. It's definitely a line you should at least consider.

[Vantek]

The idea that he's betting AT doesn't seem unreal to me. It's 10NL, 21/16 is a whole lot weaker here than somewhere else (how many hands btw OP?), in fact I tend to treat it as a sign of being a bit spewy and anyway he definitely seems a bit too loose because VPIP and PFR are so far apart. From his perspective you could easily be just cbetting and he wants to get value from draws. I definitely wouldn't but most AT in his range, but two or three of them for sure.

That being said, I would put most T9s and 99-TT in his range. It's too late to stove I'll check it tomorrow.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Yeah, wtf? How do you think he ever has AT? That's like...not even a remote possibility if he's good IMO. You are showing enormous strength here by betting this wet board and repping an overpair. I think you're often against sets and draws.

You are never showing "enormous strenght" when you cbet a flop in 3way pot... I would always cbet hands like gutshot+bfd here (not complete air tho). But yes, you are right in a sense, we probably wouldn't cbet hands like AJ or 44 here.

Anyway, you're both right that it's not certain that he would even call preflop with ATs and he doesn't raise it most of the time on the flop... but that is just about the only made hand he could ever have that doesn't beat us. All his other made hands beat us.

Now, alternatively, instead of bettingthis flop, you can check and see a very nice turn where you put your money in as a big favorite now.

I was thinking about checking this flop... but I wasn't certain on one thing. Do we want to be the ones commiting ourself (checkraise) or how are we playing the later streets if we check/call?

If we're going by the assumption that villain is a good player, he's not barreling the turn with just an FD when he has the option to take a free card. So, if he does bet the turn too, we probably should fold (if we really assume that he's a good player).