small overpair facing double barrel from utg opener

[couriermike]

Villain is 18/15/4 over 1000 hands, a standard tag for 10nl. He opens 13% from UTG, c-bets 70% and double barrels 60%.

Should I have raised the flop? If so, r/c or r/f? What do you do on the turn?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($10.30)
Hero (MP) ($10.45)
Button ($10.15)
SB ($11.07)
BB ($13.37)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, 10
UTG bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.15) 2, 8, 3 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.95) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero ?

[urbansprawler]

I like how you played this hand very much, from not making a common mistake of 3-betting pre to not raising the flop. Based on your opponent's double-barrel stat, I would call on the turn.

[krcmdc]

I r/f the flop - avoiding the likely double barrel. Expecting only sets, bigger pairs, and maybe 2 big diamonds to 3bet here.

As played, I call the turn, and almost certainly the river as well. If you're ahead (which I believe you usually are given his propensity for double barreling), any raise folds him losing value from his river bluff. If you're behind, raising sucks worse. Make it easy on yourself, river the Td and stack him.

Then again, wtf do I know.

[krcmdc]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

I like how you played this hand very much, from not making a common mistake of 3-betting pre to not raising the flop. Based on your opponent's double-barrel stat, I would call on the turn.

Why no flop raise? Seems like an obvious r/f situation to me.
Why in the world would anyone want to see a turn card here when half the deck is a very scary card for us versus a villain who loves to fire bets? I can't see the "correctness" in flatting the flop (especially with a third player still in the hand) - I either want control of this hand, or I want out of this hand, and I want one or the other as soon as possible.

I don't see any real value from calling. I suppose it allows villain to continue to bluff, if he's bluffing. But if he's bluffing, he's likely bluffing with at least 6 outs minimum and maybe more, many more. With half the deck being a bad card for us, I can't see flatting here, it seems so obviously wrong to me.

What am I missing?

[urbansprawler]

When you raise, you fold out what you beat and get calls from better. Why would you turn your hand into a bluff here?

[given1982]

Are those datamined hands? If not, you should have an actual read in addition to stats. With the info you've given, I'm pretty indifferent between folding the turn and calling the turn and folding to a river bet. He double barrels a lot, but here he's UTG and cbet into 2 people.

Originally Posted by krcmdc

Seems like an obvious r/f situation to me.

I'm not sure there's any such thing as an "obvious r/f situation" postflop. I'm really only raise/folding on the flop if I'm bluffing, and there aren't necessarily "obvious" spots for that--you just do it a certain percentage of the time on certain boards, adjusting the percentage based on game conditions.

Raise/folding this hand on this flop is not good. You're not going to get value from 99, and you're probably not going to fold out JJ.

[krcmdc]

Um ok boys you win. Flat it all day.


"Raise/folding this hand on this flop is not good. You're not going to get value from 99, and you're probably not going to fold out JJ."

No value from 99, and JJ probably won't ever fold. Got it. Thanks.
Don't raise flop and turn extremely vulnerable hand into bluff vs utg tag raise. Got that too, thanks guys.

[urbansprawler]

Hey I try not to be an asshole but don't turn the pokertrikz forum into 2p2. If you don't like someone's advice, please don't flame. Given is one of the oldest members on this forum and I would at least accept his thoughts as +EV.

[krcmdc]

You consider that a flame? Apologies then. If Given feels the same, he should just remove it, I believe he has such power.

You both may be right, raise/folding the flop may be wrong. And flatting the flop may be right. Like I said before, wtf do I know. But...

Turning the hand into a bluff - (this is off the top of my head, no pokerstove, so if the numbers are off, don't slay me too bad) - we're about 3 to 2 fav against his range on the flop. Any overcard on the turn makes it a coin flip heading to the river. I'd much rather have the betting initiative in this spot.

As far as "extracting value" goes - I'll never believe that any player is capable of folding pocket nines here every time, and yet almost never capable of folding pocket jacks. Anyway, I'm not so much looking to extract maximum value here, this isn't $400nl and it isn't necessary to even attempt to maximize value in these spots. I simply want to protect my hand if it is the best hand, and find out right now if it isn't the best hand. We're either a vulnerable favorite, or we're being driven to valuetown - I'd like to know which, asap. This isn't a wa/wb situation, we're either slightly ahead or we're way behind - not exactly the best spot to be maximizing value, imo anyway.

[urbansprawler]

Since when is a 75% favorite "slightly ahead, way behind?"