Unconventional line w QQ otb vs nitty villain

[nawhead]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.09)
UTG ($13.08)
MP ($9.87)
Hero (Button) ($5.38)
SB ($3.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
1 fold, MP bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 7, 5, 7 (2 players)
MP bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.55) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $1, Hero calls $1

Total pot: $3.55 | Rake: $0.23


Villain is like 9/6 over enough orbits to know he's on the nitty side. Don't know if I like bloating the pot vs this guy, want some value from small pair opens. Like/dislike my line? Raise flop? Bet turn? Just fold QQ if I'm going to play like this?

Thanks!

[zomfgwtfbbq]

Bet turn, check river.

EDIT : Check river only if some obvious draws or overcards came. But I rather like to bet the turn.

[urbansprawler]

Yeah, bet turn.

[nawhead]

But I really put villain on PP here. AK cbets a 77x flushing, straighting board? I just didn't feel it from 9/6 guy. I should add I was playing about a 11/9 game myself.

What do we hope to get called by with a turn bet?

Are we ever betting to protect our hand? Do you feel 9/6 guy check/calls with a draw in this spot?

Or are we just not realistically hoping to get called by much unless beat, just betting to take down the pot?

And if we bet turn and get c/r'ed, are we calling, folding or raising?

[Richy47]

I don't hate your line preflop, but postflop I think you should be raising the flop. If you put the villain on a pp then if they have a smaller overpair than you you are stacking them. If it's a baby pair then you're probably not going to get much more out of a nit anyway.

As played, bet turn and if we get C/R'ed then I'm going with the hand all the way since you have hugely under-repped your hand preflop, plus the fact this is on a drawy board.

[Spinage]

if hes only raising 6% of his hands pre, you are so far ahead on that flop that you should be raising for value, and probably calling a shove. Only hands that beat you on that flop are AA and KK.

I am more optimistic against a 9/6 on this flop than a looser player who would connect a lot better. Look at his range in pokerstove: 88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo

No sevens, four overpairs that are worse than your over pair (which you can usually expect a call or a raise from), no straight flush draws.. only one combo of flush draw with two overs (which is 50/50 on a paired board).

So the only hands that are ahead of you are AA and KK, where as 88/99/TT/JJ/AhTh-AhKh/ maybe KhQh will call your raise and possible even raise to get it in on this drawy board. There are few hands in his range he won't want to get it in with, but only 2 that crush you.

Board: 7c 5h 7h
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	38.096%  	36.93% 	01.16% 	         89943 	     2835.00   { 88+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh }
Hand 1: 	61.904%  	60.74% 	01.16% 	        147927 	     2835.00   { QQ }

Raise the flop and get it in hopefully. As played, at least bet the turn when he checks to get value from flush draws, AJ and possibly TT (though he might just fold seeing how you've been playing)

As for the pre-flop, I don't really like it.. I mean, if he's raising like 2% of hands then fine, be cautious (though your still flipping with more than half of his range... AA/KK is 0.9%), but 6% is enough for a value raise IP.. though if he 4bet I'd probably fold.

[chinz]

From my experience these overly tight setmining donks in micros often tend to setmine even without the correct odds... So you should 3bet (and fold to 4bet) this preflop.

First of all, 3betting QQ has tons of value even against 9/6 guy... but also you're getting a lot of folds preflop and/or taking down bigger pot in later streets or showdown.

He's never gonna 4bet bluff you or probably even 4bet with AK or other QQ, so you are actually saving money by 3betting when you are beat preflop, because you can fold to shove and be certain that you're beat.

So, 3betting pre saves you money when you're beat and earns you money when you have him beat. Sounds like only right way to play this, right?

As played, why the f do you check the turn?

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by chinz

So, 3betting pre saves you money when you're beat and earns you money when you have him beat. Sounds like only right way to play this, right?

As played, why the f do you check the turn?

What happens when nitty guy slowplays AA oop and checks the flop to us in a 3bet pot? Do we still save money? I think we're more likely to reverse valuetown ourselves because we define our range perfectly for villain who easily put us on JJ+ now and may even fold 88-TT on any low flop, or at most pay 1 street and quit.

And no way does a guy like this get it in on the flop with 66-TT vs me. The problem is I'm playing 12/10 and play like grandma (obvious from this post, eh?). That's why this hand is playing out like this. I really believe he'd even start check/calling with AA against me.

And I check the turn because guys like this have a setmining mentality even with something like 88-TT on this type of board and don't want to be in a position of check-calling with an underpair 2 streets in a row (and I have no image of double barreling so I don't get value 2 streets ever here).

I also think he's far more likely to call a bet on a safe river with 88-TT than put me on a semibluff on the turn. That's a super strong line from me when 9/6 guy's opening ranges is such that 60-70% of his hands are check-calling or check-raising this turn and I'm still like 50/50 when called and instafolding when c/r'd? Screw that. I'm checking here all day.

I'm not trying to get a significant part of my stack in here just like I'm not trying to get my stack in with QQ preflop vs this guy when there are far easier spots coming.

I guess the questions I'm asking myself before I act preflop is

1. What are the odds I have the best hand and villain will pay off 3 streets or a 3bet and stackoff postflop with less?
2. What are the odds I have worst hand (now or after the flop) and stackoff to him if I start getting the pot big right now?

So I very likely have the best hand here. But the times I don't, I'm stacking off vs this guy almost always if I put in a 3bet. But at the same time, I don't think he's stacking off vs me when he has a worse hand. So it serves my best interest to keep the pot size the same as when villain has the worst hand vs me, and that's gonna keep me in the black over the long run.

So say 7/10 times I have the best hand. I think I'm gonna get 20bb avg from him if I 3bet (a lot of check/folds on flop obviously, some pf open/folds). I have worse 3/10 times (AA,KK, he flops a set), he's gonna get 60bb+ from me especially if I 3bet.

+140 ahead
-180 behind

See my thought process now?

We can tinker with the numbers for the times he flops an open-ender with a small pp or flush draw with AKs or whatnot, but I'm just simplifying. Obviously if we play good postflop we maximize our wins postflop anyway.

That old maxim in poker is "maximize our profit when ahead, minimize our loss when behind." This mentality of auto3bet any opponent with big pair doesn't achieve this, in this spot, vs this guy, I'm sure of it.

Against guys who play this tight, we make it very easy for them when we 3bet them unless we're playing very laggy. I don't play laggy so I tailor my game to maximize my profits according to my style.

Doh... I forgot I started the hand with <60bb's. My thinking applies more to 100bb stacks or deeper. So hopefully you'll take this as more a theoretical discussion now... heh.

[chinz]

With these stack sizes (didn't notice them earlier) I would be 3betting this AGAINST ANYONE and calling a shove.

Even if they would only play 5% of their hands, they would get it in with JJ and AK (at least, they obv should with even wider range) and fold sometimes.

-> 3bet/call = profit