Flop straight flush draw, spew equity, then get it in

[Silverthunder]

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($52.35)
BB ($48.25)
UTG ($23.65)
MP ($100.30)
Hero (CO) ($49.25)
Button ($65.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:club:, 8:club:
2 folds, Hero bets $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) 4:diamond:, 6:club:, 10:club: (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($13.50) 9:diamond: (2 players)
SB bets $13.50, Hero raises to $42.75 (All-In), SB calls $29.25


I didn't really have any info on this villain except that he did not seem to be a blatant donk. I hadn't played many hand with him. I do remember being under the impression that he will bluff some non-negligible portion of the time. I was playing a few tables so I may have missed a read or two. I also don't use a HUD (site wont allow it).

I haven't been playing at this limit for very long so I am not completely sure of peoples calling range from the blinds. Therefore, normal calling range on this site, at this limit from the BB vs button is unknown in our analysis here. If I had to answer, I would say that people are slightly underpositionally aware.

My thinking was that I should have possibly got it in on the flop when I had more equity but probably not because you only get called by bigger flush draws and sets that are drawing to outs against you hitting.

I think on the turn, it was either fold or shove. Shove is probably slightly better because you have some chance of a better hand folding.

I pokerstoved it; here. I don't have sets in his range becuase at this limit, sets often check the flop.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.744% 37.50% 00.24% 462 3.00 { 9c8c }
Hand 1: 62.256% 62.01% 00.24% 764 3.00 { JJ, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, KTs, T9s, 87s, ATo }

[couriermike]

On the flop you're 45% against an overpair but only 37% on the turn. Raising the flop and getting it in with that much equity is definitely OK. If you just call the flop bet I would not raise the turn when you don't hit. I'd probably call a small bet or fold to a big bet like villain made. Semi-bluff raising the turn is bad because you have less fold equity (after he bets twice) and less showdown equity than you did on the flop.

[mxrider]

Shoving the turn is spew. You have absolutely no fold equity at this point and is what makes shoving a FD a profitable play generally on the flop. Once you get to the turn, the SPR gets too low to make this a profitable play.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by mxrider

Shoving the turn is spew. You have absolutely no fold equity at this point and is what makes shoving a FD a profitable play generally on the flop. Once you get to the turn, the SPR gets too low to make this a profitable play.

What is SPR?

Is it really good to shove these low card flush draws on the flop.? Between the outs that sets have, someone having the A and catching runner runner better flush or being up against a better flush draw from the start, you are not getting much value.

I kinda like Mike's idea of the raise on the flop because you are getting your money in good and then you might be able to get him to check to you on the turn so that you can check behind, if you want.

You really don't think I have any fold equity? AT would never fold? Maybe AT folding is not the right play but wouldn't some villains do it; even, say, a solid player that is making a mistake?

Here is what happened in the hand...

River: ($99) 9:spade: (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $99

[Michaellawrw]

SPR is Stack to Pot ratio ( a theory I hate from PHE but hey each their own) I'm getting it in on this flop and loving life against most people and it does provide some runner runner for ya unless he has a set.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by Silverthunder

You really don't think I have any fold equity? AT would never fold? Maybe AT folding is not the right play but wouldn't some villains do it; even, say, a solid player that is making a mistake?

Here is what happened in the hand...

River: ($99) 9:spade: (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $99

You do have some FE.. And AT could fold sometimes but I think AT calls the majority of the time and I dont think he is betting pot on this turn to fold to a raise.

reraising the flop has a lot more fold equity because his range is also a lot wider (he could be bet/folding small PPs or weak draws but wont bet that big on turn with them.)
And you can profitably get it in if he does shove the flop because you have a lot more equity.

You also turn a pair, which could be good if he is drawing.
That combined with the fact that you have almost no FE makes the turn a call getting 2 to 1.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

You do have some FE.. And AT could fold sometimes but I think AT calls the majority of the time and I dont think he is betting pot on this turn to fold to a raise.

reraising the flop has a lot more fold equity because his range is also a lot wider (he could be bet/folding small PPs or weak draws but wont bet that big on turn with them.)
And you can profitably get it in if he does shove the flop because you have a lot more equity.

You also turn a pair, which could be good if he is drawing.
That combined with the fact that you have almost no FE makes the turn a call getting 2 to 1.

I like calling. I think at the time when I was in this hand, I thought I had less equity than I did. I also probably did not factor in the implied odds enough when making the decision. I think I do like a call here, even though initially I thought my shove was a good play.