raise for value?

[couriermike]

What do you guys think about this thread from 2+2? 2.5k post; Why did you raise? Because I had a good hand duh. - Beginning Poker Questions - Beginner Poker Forum

Raised pot, board is double paired by the river, you have top full, villain bets into you. Do you raise? Thread OP says you can't raise for value, only call, because there are no worse hands that will call, you're just value-towning yourself those times villain has quads (which btw happened to me today ). IDK it seems to be giving villain alot of credit, even at small or mid-stakes. I don't really get it, your hand is awesome, raise and let them make a mistake. What do you think?

[urbansprawler]

Don't really liek raising.

[Spinage]

That's just silly. At the end of the day there is 1 combo of 33 and 27 combos of KK-QQ, TT-88 + 3 JJs. So if a guy only calls once in 20 times with these hands you have a 1.35:1 edge over his calling range (meaning you will win 1.35 times for ever 1 time you lose). I dunno how often someone is gonna tripple barrel these hands, but seeing as you are drastically underepping your hand on a board he easily connects with.. is it fair to say he may tripple barrel bluff at LEAST 1/20 times? In which case a shove hides your cards, which is also beneficial.. you don't want people to know you didn't raise TPGK on a A33 board, otherwise they are just gonna fold every single time you try to value raise a good hand there.


Realistically, people are calling more often than 1/20 with hands like QQ and KK there and that is just the basic maths, sometimes spewtards are calling K high if you consider tilt and psychology and your image .

On a side note, does anyone agree that flatting AJs OOP to a MP raise (with one person left to act) from such a nitty opponent is fairly -EV.

Jokers at 2+2 again. 'I R posting at 2+2, I no pokor, lisen to my amasing theory wich is rite becoz u never thought of it)

Edit: the ratio of 1.35:1 doesn't even take into account the ammount of times you tie the pot - it's a lot obviously, but your still winning more than your losing.

[urbansprawler]

You didn't account for the fact that you lose more rake when you raise.

The call was atrocious.

EDIT: spinage i used to follow that philosophy until i got fucked hard up the ass in a similar spot.

[Spinage]

At micros, maybe rake can be taken into account... but on that post its 100nl and the rake is capped by that point at any site that I know of (if it isn't at your site, find a better site)

Unlucky urban, but you shouldn't pass up profitable situations (unless you can justify it being unprofitable - which its not in a vacuum) just because you got beat in a similar situation.

[urbansprawler]

Truzat, but villain was described as a nit.

[Spinage]

17/14 is nitty, but its not a rock. I think there's still value. Thin, and most of the time you are either splitting or taking the pot down without showing your hand (+), but there are more times you will get called down with worse than with 33, so with all that info.. I just don't know how calling is better than raising unless you trying to convey a passive image for some reason. If you raise here (and in similar spots) and he folds, he will give you less and less credit every time you do it..

Eventually your gonna get a call from worse from any observant player and I think its gonna take a LOT less than 20 times for this to happen (even if you think its 100% a split or you are folding out his worse hands, the rake is capped, you should still shove to make other people at the table who are watching doubt you).

[urbansprawler]

Eh depends on sample size I spose.

[Spinage]

I wonder if.. at high stakes where there are some really good readers, if you were to flat here.. and shove the next time, you would get called with worse more often because your hand looks so much like a bluff.. I mean.. if you flat with AAA33.. what do you raise with? Quads and bluffs only... but thats getting way ahead of my ability

[chinz]

I think even the misclick/misread/timeout folds he could make (with hands like A9-AK) are enough of a reason to shove this river 110bb deep, because there's exactly one hand (one permutation ffs) that beats us.

If he doesn't notice that the board is paired, there's a chance he'd fold Ax. That isn't likely at all (still possible, especially against multitablers), but I think it's more likely than him having quads here.

The main reason for me shoving this, is that I can actually make Ax fold sometimes, I believe. Also, villain would be an massive idiot for not overbet-shoving this river with quads 120bb deep IMO.