Float with overs and backdoor draws?

[Silverthunder]

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($49.90)
UTG ($65.85)
MP ($18.45)
CO ($68.15)
Button ($44.30)
SB ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:diamond:, A:spade:
UTG bets $1.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 2:club:, 3:diamond:, J:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 4:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

First of all, the purpose of this post is so that Urban Sprawler can call me a spewtard.

So I am back to grinding at 50NL for a bit.. took a bit of a shot at 100NL but I gotta repair the bankroll a bit. It's not that I necessarily played a negative EV game there, well, maybe slightly negative EV but definitely need a lot more work to get me to a good win rate at 100 NL.

First of all, I am addicted to floating players on their first barrel. It's really tough to find the right balance of when to float villains on their continuation bet. I think that it's a real area for improvement in my game. I don't like donking into the players a lot becuase then the turn check looks weak. There are a lot of hands that I have floated people, this is just one example. Part of the reason why I chose this example is because there is also 4th st to talk about..

Anyway, the villain was a TAG regular. He is from NY and he appears to play all night like me. He was at all 4 of my tables (and maybe other tables, t00) & while I don't have a HUD, I would say that he was playing definitely not much above 20VPIP, if that. One thing that was strange, and maybe it was just because of a short sample size, but it seemed like the villain was opening UTG a fair amount. I think it is possible that he was undervaluing position preflop. There is no actual data to back up this hypothesis, it was just something that I noticed.

At this limit on this site, I don't know that the villains think so much along the lines, if I cbet this flop, will my opponent believe that this flop hit my range?

I saw him cbet on an Ace, broadway broadway board recently before this. Here is a hand that I found by looking at the hand history at another table; I didn't notice this hand when it was happening. He had AA in a 3 bet pot OOP, flop was monotone, J high, he checks & opp check behind, and the turn pairs the Jack & the river was a blank (I think). He checks all the way down the line. So yea, strong is weak and weak is strong with betting. I lake finding data after the fact to support my spewing.

Are my calls spew?

On the turn, if I am drawing dead on the diamond draw, the turn bet is spew.

[chinz]

Preflop:
I'm not too sure about this preflop play... on the other hand there's not too much value in 3betting tight UTG with AQ, but at least it makes this easier to play post flop and he should be 4betting the hand (AK) that dominate you, so you don't have to worry about that postflop. You're most likely to just take it down preflop, but I think that's better than trying to play it OOP without initiative and huge stacks to pot ratio (which increases the positional advantage). The another thing is that I'm 3betting close to 10% preflop, so if I'm not 3betting hands like AQ some of the better regulars should notice that even at these levels.

I'd like to hear another opinions on this, would someone just prefer a call even OOP?



Postflop:
Do not float OOP, if you don't want to give up, you should just check/raise.

When he bets that turn too, you should probably just give up, even if you were floating in position. You shouldn't be trying to get people off made hands really, if you are floating in position you're hoping he's just cbetting and will give up on the turn.

EDIT:
If you still want to make a play, you could try check/raising to something like $18 on that turn. You should get NL50 regular to fold top pair or overpairs, if you're image is decent.

I'd like to have my HUD and/or some reads about his play before making that play. Some regulars (even tight ones) are such calling stations that they wouldn't fold overpair to a turn raise here, even if you're image is very tight.

[Silverthunder]

"Preflop:
I'm not too sure about this preflop play... on the other hand there's not too much value in 3betting tight UTG with AQ, but at least it makes this easier to play post flop and he should be 4betting the hand (AK) that dominate you, so you don't have to worry about that postflop. You're most likely to just take it down preflop, but I think that's better than trying to play it OOP without initiative and huge stacks to pot ratio (which increases the positional advantage). The another thing is that I'm 3betting close to 10% preflop, so if I'm not 3betting hands like AQ some of the better regulars should notice that even at these levels.

I'd like to hear another opinions on this, would someone just prefer a call even OOP?"

I would rather play the pot OOP in a raised pot rather in a 3 bet pot. I think that, well maybe not for a regular like this who is playing at least 4 tables, but players tend to not think onthe level that, "wow, that is really strong, 3 betting the UTG raiser. Wow, better head for the exit" They like to call. These players like to see the flop.

"Do not float OOP, if you don't want to give up, you should just check/raise."

I like the check/call, check... line
Not that you have to necessarily deal with this at 50NL unless you are trying to beat a table of all regulars, but argument here is that I do this with a pocket pair, when there is one over on the board, like pocket tens here & so I have to do it as a bluff sometimes. Also, in some situations, like if you had a weird hand like a gutshot and an over (not sure that I would float the same way with that but anyway), you can pair your low card on the turn and then you can go to showdown and not have to fire a bluff.

"When he bets that turn too, you should probably just give up, even if you were floating in position. You shouldn't be trying to get people off made hands really, if you are floating in position you're hoping he's just cbetting and will give up on the turn."

I have a lot of outs. Hopefully, any diamond as he has played his hand sorta like he has some kind of pocket pair (AdX without the jack would often check behind on the flop), like 10s and so even if he has a diamond there mine is higher. Outs are probably any queen, any diamond, any 5- so that is 15 outs, 32% chance; I am getting way better than that. I didn't even include the A outs because some of this stuff might be a split pot or he possibly has AJ..

[chinz]

Well, the problem is that when you take that line, he can easily call (and he will!) the river with hand like 88 because he doesn't have to worry about later streets.

When you check/raise this flop, he has to have TP or better to continue...

If we call that flop, we HAVE TO bluff some cards in order to make that +EV call and that turn is probably the best possible card for us to represent. We should be getting him to fold A LOT of hands when we raise that turn.

If you are representing hands like weak J or 77-TT, why are you calling that turn? What do you plan on doing on the river? Donkbetting would be totally silly (and get called a lot, because the hand ends there, he doesn't have to worry about later streets like in flop/turn checkraise) and if we check, he'll just check back a lot with better hands.

Floating that flop (well, any flop) out of position is bad, esp. against UTG. If we do that, we really HAVE TO either raise that turn or give up.

AJ/KJ and FDs are only hands we can credibly rep with that line preflop/flop and he might have AJ/KJ beat here. That turn card is great for our OOP check/calling range, as we can actually represent a strong hand credibly when we c/r turn.

Even if he just calls the turn c/r and doesn't shove, our Qd might still be alive and the river will certainly go check-check if fourth diamond comes and he doesn't have Ad.

PS. Please use [ QUOTE ] and [ /QUOTE ] (without spaces) when quoting someone, it's much easier to read.



EDIT:

Also, because we have Qd in our hand, there's much less made flushes in his range, because a large portion of his suited hands from UTG have Q in them (AQ, KQ, JQ, QTs). Only problem is hands like AdAx or AdJx, which could peel the turn c/r.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by chinz

Well, the problem is that when you take that line, he can easily call (and he will!) the river with hand like 88 because he doesn't have to worry about later streets.

When you check/raise this flop, he has to have TP or better to continue...

If we call that flop, we HAVE TO bluff some cards in order to make that +EV call and that turn is probably the best possible card for us to represent. We should be getting him to fold A LOT of hands when we raise that turn.

PS. Please use [ QUOTE ] and [ /QUOTE ] (without spaces) when quoting someone, it's much easier to read.

It's positive EV just to call that turn bet. If we try to check raise the villain we risk that he may not be the best regular & so his calling range would be sets, overpairs, the A high flush draw and the made flush with KQ. I don't like check raising; it is turning a perfectly good hand into a bluff. At these limits, (though the risk is lower with a regular) there is the risk that the villain will call with TPTK because in the past he may have gotten value from a donk that did that with KJ or JQ.

Edit: I think the problem with the check raise is that we are turning a descent hand into a bluff.
thanks for the info about how to do that with the quotes. On another note, is there any way to edit the title of a thread after you have posted it?

2nd edit: check calling the flop then allows us to bluff on the river after he checks behind on the turn. That is where we get value. Btw, I know that there is a good chance that I am going to get flamed for this line but I have been using this line at the micros & I don't think it is that bad.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by Silverthunder

It's positive EV just to call that turn bet. If we try to check raise the villain we risk that he may not be the best regular & so his calling range would be sets, overpairs, the A high flush draw and the made flush with KQ. I don't like check raising; it is turning a perfectly good hand into a bluff. At these limits, (though the risk is lower with a regular) there is the risk that the villain will call with TPTK because in the past he may have gotten value from a donk that did that with KJ or JQ.

How is it really positive EV? Even if we hit our diamond or A/Q, we have to check/fold, so we never get value and we don't really have too many outs (overpair outs might be dead, flush might be dead).

He can't have made flush with AQ, KQ KJ, JQ, TJ, TQ or AJ here, only made flushes are ATs or AKs. When we have Qd and board has Jd his UTG range really doesn't have flushes...

Edit: I think the problem with the check raise is that we are turning a descent hand into a bluff.

WHAT? We are never ahead here, I would turn hands like weak top pairs into a bluff here.

Also, his betsizing IMO implies he doesn't have a flush. Our calling range would be TP+ here, so he could as well get a little extra by betting like $8 on the turn. He wants us to call, but he's not too happy about that turn card. At least I would interpret it like that against an unknown NL50 regular.

If we were a little deep, we could raise this turn very small (getting his weak hands to fold, and AdX + sets and such to call) and shove any non-diamond non-pairing river... But to make that, I would really have to respect villain enough to think I can get him fold hands like AdA on the river.

thanks for the info about how to do that with the quotes. On another note, is there any way to edit the title of a thread after you have posted it?

No, there isn't. Mods can do it for you, if it's really important.

[Silverthunder]

I am going to poker stove this. I really don't think we are in such bad shape on that turn. It's a small turn bet.

edit:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.408% 30.18% 01.23% 478 19.50 { AdQs }
Hand 1: 68.592% 67.36% 01.23% 1067 19.50 { JJ+, 44-22, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh, AJo, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs }

edit2: we have to contribute 27% to the pot that will be made. Now, implied odds calculations would get complicated here. So that may be where part of your argument is coming from..

[chinz]

Ehm? We have negative implied odds, because there is simply zero river cards we could valuebet, and we could very well be drawing dead, or something like 3 outs. I edited my previous posts a little, make sure you read all that I've written in them about his range and why I think we can credibly rep a flush and he doesn't have flush himself like ever.

If we had position and AdQx, there could be some value, because we could actually valuebet some rivers.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by chinz

He can't have made flush with AQ, KQ KJ, JQ, TJ, TQ or AJ here, only made flushes are ATs or AKs. When we have Qd and board has Jd his UTG range really doesn't have flushes...

Good point.

Originally Posted by chinz

Also, his betsizing IMO implies he doesn't have a flush. Our calling range would be TP+ here, so he could as well get a little extra by betting like $8 on the turn. He wants us to call, but he's not too happy about that turn card. At least I would interpret it like that against an unknown NL50 regular.

Yea, I think bet sizing really can be a tell. Would be so profitable to really figure that stuff out for different villains. That is why I want to get to a good level of stakes that I can stay at for a while and then you can really start analyzing the other players with a huge sample size.

[given1982]

This is played pretty badly. I think chinz has identified the problems. I'd just 3bet this preflop if you think he opens a lot UTG. As played, c/r and c/f are both better than the OOP float on the flop.

It's hard to comment on the turn because you didn't tell us about his barreling tendencies.

You talked about taking a c/c, c/c line as a "bluff" to balance out when you do this with TT. You should really know by the time you're playing 50NL that a "bluff" is a line that someone can fold to.

Check/calling down with A-high because you think the villain is a total spewmonkey and your hand is good often enough is one thing. But please don't bluffcall.