50NL: straight (bluffcatcher) on double paired board.

[AdrienD]

Villain is TAG reggy... No other reads sortof unknown, he has been playing tight so far.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	Pieurs17	($53.55)
CO	Hero	($50.00)
BTN	coeckie	($50.00)
SB	mj99kb	($50.00)
BB	nigritu	($74.15)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, Hero raises to $2, coeckie calls $2, mj99kb calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($6.50, 3 players)
mj99kb checks, Hero bets $5, coeckie calls $5, mj99kb folds

Turn: ($16.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $11.50, coeckie calls $11.50

River: ($39.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, coeckie goes all-in $31.50, Hero goes all-in $31.50

Final Pot: $102.50
Hero shows:
coeckie shows:

coeckie wins $100.50 ( won +$50.50 )
mj99kb lost -$2
Hero lost -$50


Think a std TAG reg will raise either flop or turn w 2pair/trips a lot of the time...
getting 2 to 1 on river (need to be right ~33% of time)

Not sure if this is call or fold. When I check river I never have a queen and any semi-decent villain will know that so I think he should be shoving all his missed flushdraws.

My hand = A2 here and close to a jack only difference is that I cant split.

[AdrienD]

nvm...

analyzed this hand over and over and I'm convinced its a fold now.

I somehow assumed he'd have a lot more missed flushdraws which would make this a call (especially if he is checking Jx a decent % of time), but given that there are only 2-4 combos of FDs he could have + even if he doesnt shove a jack often at all = still not enough equity (18-25%) for a call (need 30%)

[podbelski]

I'd fold as played, though it is really painful...

Maybe another option is to "think" several seconds on the turn and just shove

[JohnnyKorova]

Ez fold on the river.