Are we going to value bet here?

[kgu1]

Not too much information on villain; from what I've seen, he's on the loose/passive side. Is the Q on the river a good card for me to value bet? I an getting value from any 7 or 9. Then again, a set, any Ace, or backdoor flush will call me. Let me know your thoughts. And please, let me know how I did for the entire hand as well. Thanks.

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10)
UTG ($12.02)
MP ($5.44)
CO ($7.58)
Hero (Button) ($10.55)
SB ($10.29)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.45, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) 7, 3, 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.65, UTG calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.35) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.35, UTG calls $1.35

River: ($5.05) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero?

[Nostalgica]

This is not a bluff.. what do you want to fold out? Two pair? Ax? This is a decent spot to thin value bet, though, because you are repping a triple barrel only (against good players you MAY fold out Ax, but I doubt it here) when in fact he mostly has weak mid pair hands in his range. I would vbet this smallish a lot of the times, somethign like 1/3 to 1/2 pot is good without dynamic.

[kgu1]

I apologize for the typo. I meant to say "value bet" instead of "bluff." The error has been changed.

[sibbesen]

I'm having a hard time believing there is a 7 or 9 (Exept A/9 or A/7 out there looks more like a middle-ish PP or a BD-flush hit. I'm probably on the tight side here so it would be a check on my account here... If you bet out for value and he pushes All-in would you call... I think not! now you've got 2'nd pair with top kicker so you've got decent showdown value but not enough to value bet.

Would like to hear if Nostalgica would call an all-in after vbetting small...

[urbansprawler]

Vb very small, like 1/4 pot, or check imo.

Don't think any normal-sized valuebet is +EV.=========\

[Nostalgica]

It would be a good value bet because a "decent" player will see our line as extremely polarized and would basically call with any pair if he thinks we can double barrel the ace and fold off what looks to be mid pair as two pair + is not really in his range, nor is top pair.

We're obviously not calling if he shoves, but this is because we believe he has SDV and will not turn his hand into a bluff, so we usually believe him to have a weaker SD hand, and will generally fold but may talk himself into a call-- I know I may. If the opponent is very tricky and capable of doing that, then the game would be very interesting, but there are not many players capable pof that.

[urbansprawler]

If the dynamic is as you say, it would've been foolish of OP to not post it and I doubt that's the case.

I think he's just wondering what to do in this spot in general, whether or not a FD hit. It's a fairly common situation at <50NL.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by Nostalgica

It would be a good value bet because a "decent" player will see our line as extremely polarized and would basically call with any pair if he thinks we can double barrel the ace and fold off what looks to be mid pair as two pair + is not really in his range, nor is top pair.

Yes but this is 10NL and villain limp-called = infinitely + 1 more likely to be a fish.

Also even if he were a 10NL reg the chance that he can even put you on a range of hands is extremely small.

Don't think a vbet is good here. villain could be slowplaying all along or turned an ace with a float (10NL fish love to float overs and gutshots even OOP imo)

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by Nostalgica

It would be a good value bet because a "decent" player will see our line as extremely polarized and would basically call with any pair if he thinks we can double barrel the ace and fold off what looks to be mid pair as two pair + is not really in his range, nor is top pair.

A decent player might also see, that we might bet most of our weak A here and he might try to push us off by turning his hand into a bluff since his perceived c/r-range on the river is very strong and we are very likely to fold huge parts of our range...

But it's 10NL so don't expect anybody to think too much. If ppl peel one more card on the A /w secondpair they are VERY likely to fold to another bet on the river. They think only about their hand - so you should just handread and not try to play lvl 2
Villains range consists of Ax that he peeled on the flop, some 9x maybe even 7x and some draws. Most of the time he will fold all his 9x and 7x and draws to another bet and call with all his Ax.