50NL: OESD against villains small bets

[tmiby]

Have played only 3 hands with this guy.
He chooses a very passiv line. I get the required odds pretty much on every street. I would like to show up with more aggression but he could have flopped a 2 pair (QJ) or set. It seems like a strong hand for me...what's our line?

[urbansprawler]

I think you played it perfectly.

[podbelski]

Seems good.

One thing I hate to see is a check-STRONGraise on the flop for my OE... Mathematically, usually you won't have proper odds to call, especially he is likely to bet the turn as well...

If so, what can be done here? I see either checking behind which is not good as a general rule I beleive. Or betting exactly halfpot so if he raises (3x or 2.5x) the pot odds will be somewhat better... Or just pot it and get it in... plz help!

[Kleanthes]

as you said, villian seems to be on the weak and loose side. His line confirms this assumption in my opinion. First he calls a preflop Raise oop, then he min-checkraises the flop giving you the right odds to call with any decent draw. Then he makes a very smallish bet on the turn. This looks like a Queen to me, propably something like QTs. He flops TP, a really great hand in the eyes of a weak player, so he checkraises you. After you call his checkraise, he propably became suspicous and a bit scared he is beat. So he decides to bet a very small amount to see where he is at and to keep the pot small. On the river he follows his "game plan" making another small bet. i would just fold in this spot. Íf you call you will see a Queen or sometimes something like AJ too often, and you only have King high. If you raise, you propably will scare him too death , but he will still call to keep you honest and to satisfy his curiosity.

[chinz]

There probably is some merit to raising the turn and betting/shoving the river, just because he bets so weak on the turn... It's something like AJ or weak Q very very very often after that turn betsize imo.

But on the flop it's a call and if you call the turn, I think on the river fold > call > raise.

He could have T9 or 98 (turns doublegutter -> would barrel), but I don't really understand why'd he have take a betsize like that with it... So even though we get great odds, I don't think he's bluffing with that betsize (and he could also have A high gutshot or sth) and I don't think he's folding enough if we raise the river after just calling the turn. -> Fine as you played it.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by podbelski

One thing I hate to see is a check-STRONGraise on the flop for my OE... Mathematically, usually you won't have proper odds to call, especially he is likely to bet the turn as well...

You're wrong here. If villain would be shoving we usually wouldn't have the odds, but when there's decent stack depth you're almost always getting great odds to draw in position.

People's checkraising ranges are generally very strong, so you should expect to get more money on later streets every time you hit (ie. implied odds), so even if you cbet like 6bb to 8bb pot and villain raises it to 20bb, you have odds to draw for 8 outer in position, even when you don't have 40% or so (can't bother doing the math, but if I got it right in my head u'd need like 35-40%) required to have direct pot odds.

So, in that example where we bet 6 to 8 and get raised to 20... If we call the pot is 48bb on the turn. Even if we get only one more 38bb pot bet in with 80% equity (ie. about 30.5bb +EV) , it means we profit by making that flop call... And only expecting to get one 38bb bet out of him is quite conservative assumption... especially if we hit 9, we are very likely to get our whole stacks in with great equity against sets or two pairs.

edit:
Also, when flop is rainbow and all our 8 outs are to nut straight, we don't really have as bad negative implied odds that hand like low flushdraw (bigger flushes, boards pairing) would have. If we hit the turn, we have the current nuts every single time.

edit2:
if we were OOP and villain had 70bb stack, then it's a fold in that "raise to 20bb" example of mine.

[podbelski]

So, this becomes like

1. cbet the flop with OESD if you see you will have enough odds to call a check-raise
2. consider checking behind if not (smaller eff.stacksize, maybe flushness of the board makes some of your outs dirty)

is it ok to use the above approach as a general "in the vacuum" line?

[chinz]

Unless the board is such that you wouldn't cbet it with air, I wouldn't check back draws either...

People will still most likely just call flop cbet with top pair if they have like 40-50bb stack on QJ4r board. I have no idea what's the avarage frequency for flop check-raises, but as you probably know they happen quite rarely, so that shouldn't be your main concern.

[Nostalgica]

Chinz is right, and I think this line may not be optimal depending on reads, but I don't think it is too wrong in this case to peel two streets and fold.