NL25 (rush): passive line with AQ on dry A-high board IP

[podbelski]

Would you play this hand differently?

The flop was so dry that raising scares off all pocket underpairs, and I'll get enough money in with Ax anyway. The turn looks good, any reason to raise? Do you find the river suspicious, foldable, or snap-callable?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($7.77)
SB ($30.02)
BB ($37.76)
UTG ($28.53)
MP ($33.75)
Hero (CO) ($30.08)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, A
UTG bets $0.85, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 2, A, 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.55) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($12.55) 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $22.43 (All-In), Hero calls $22.43

Total pot: $57.41 | Rake: $2.87

[mxrider]

This one is a bit difficult as I can't see any hand that you are ahead of here playing like this. You call his UTG pfr, flat his flop cb, then he almost pots the turn and you call again. You obviously like your hand here so he goes with the overbet shove. This looks like 99 a lot here as I can't see him playing AK this agressively and think AJ slows down at some point. Possibly A9??? I think I have to let this one go.

[Nostalgica]

This is very read dependent, so I will just say that at 25NL, specifically rush tables, calling isn't too bad, as villain can be vbetting worse or bluffing, but I'd personally fold.

[given1982]

I think it's fine until the river, which is a fold against an unknown.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by given1982

I think it's fine until the river, which is a fold against an unknown.

+31215623

Im drunk as fuck like usual but still no way I*d call that river like evr, u should be able to fold without even thinking imo.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by mxrider

This looks like 99 a lot here as I can't see him playing AK this agressively and think AJ slows down at some point. Possibly A9??? I think I have to let this one go.

Yeah, I'd fold any TP here but tbh if I had A9 idk, I'd hate my life but possibly would call...

[urbansprawler]

Calling turn to fold river seems like a leak, as does calling flop to fold turn.

I either fold flop or call down to the river based on limited metagame. I'd need a much larger sample to know how often he gives up c/r bluffs on dry boards.

As played, I don't see many 2's in villain's range so I call this off.

EDIT: Saw his betsize, I fold to that.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Calling turn to fold river seems like a leak, as does calling flop to fold turn.

No, it really isn't. A lot of people are stabbing the flops, some are also bluffing the turns, but very few are firing the third barrell. At least at NL50-NL200 people are bluffing way too few rivers after barreling the turn, and so you can often play very weaktight on the river if you are facing multi-street aggression from the villain. I think that their approach is wrong from the very beginning, because there's a lots of turn cards you are making a breakeven (or slightly +ev) barrel just to be able to make very +ev third barrel... But anyway, that is the way these games are at the moment.

You gain more information about his hand on each streets, so even with bluffcatchers it's most of the time OK to call 2 streets and fold the river. In this case it's even better to call 2 and fold the river, because on flop&turn there's a chance he's valuebetting worse hands, but on the river I don't think that's the case.

I actually am playing somewhat exploitable style, as I am probably calling 2 streets wayyyyy looser than most of the people, but I am playing very weak facing any river action after villain has bet earlier streets too. But that is only exploitable when opponents' are exploiting it, against avarage micro/smallstakes opponent I believe it to be the most optimal style.

Our hand is so strong that if he bets smallish on the river it's a call of course, but even if he bets "only" like $12 I'd still fold the river at these stakes.


---

I think I'd raise the flop a lot of the time, however... but as played I'd calldown, unless he pots/overbets the river like he did. I know people can get spewy at these limits sometimes, but even then I don't really see people ever taking that line as a bluff on that board. I know, he's not really representing a wide range, but he just has it most of the time anyway.

[urbansprawler]

Why would you ever raise flop? This seems like a standard call-down spot to me.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Why would you ever raise flop? This seems like a standard call-down spot to me.

If I think villain is likely to either donkbet a lot of weak aces here (ie. most awful fishes, against whom I want to get stacks in here), or someone who I don't expect to give too much credit for me here when I raise and I think is capable of floating or 3bet bluffing.

Against unknown it's obviously calldown, but against some players there's more value in being more aggressive.