NL25 (rush): OTB stealing with Q9o

[podbelski]

Do you think checking behind the turn is a better play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($35.82)
MP ($25.05)
CO ($10.67)
Hero (Button) ($31.44)
SB ($9.44)
BB ($27.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.40, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.25) 8, 9, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

Turn: ($3.25) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, SB raises to $7.94 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $6.75 | Rake: $0.33

[mxrider]

The problem with checking behind is you are likely going to face a bet on the river and you have no clue where you are. By betting here, you are setting the amount you are willing to play with and make the decision easy.

[Nostalgica]

He's only repping K8 and sets, right? I'd hate to fold this spot, to be honest, but I do think checking turn is okay. Both are fine, though I'd be more keen on betting if I have A9. Because K is two pair, you essentially have second kicker already so it's not really an issue. Your played this hand fine, really.

The problem with checking behind is you are likely going to face a bet on the river and you have no clue where you are.

I do not think this is a problem at all. It's a very easy matter of snap calling the river unless an 8 or J hits and he pots it.

[urbansprawler]

Yeah, I'm snap-calling river. I still bet/call or bet/fold turn, though. Too much value missed by checking.

[chinz]

I like little bigger bet on the turn but yeah, you played the hand fine. I don't like checking the turn, I'd rather bet the turn and check the river (unless I think villain is the kind who I'm expecting to bluffing any missed draw if I check the turn).

The problem with checking behind is you are likely going to face a bet on the river and you have no clue where you are. By betting here, you are setting the amount you are willing to play with and make the decision easy.

It's not really a hard spot on the river if we check the turn, snippety-SNAPPPPPPPPPPP... But still I think we have a strong enough hand to bet the turn for value, no need to go bluffcatching-mode. I'm not really betting the turn to make my river decisions easy, it is just plain value.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

I like little bigger bet on the turn but yeah, you played the hand fine. I don't like checking the turn, I'd rather bet the turn and check the river (unless I think villain is the kind who I'm expecting to bluffing any missed draw if I check the turn).

(P(draw)*P(draw-checkraise) + (P(draw) * P(drawbetR))) < (P(drawcall) * P (drawbetR)) * P(draw))

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

(P(draw)*P(draw-checkraise) + (P(draw miss) *(draw bet))) < P (drawcall)

I'm drunk atm, but I'm still fairly sure that this equation doesn't make any sense.... plz check it.

The first P*P is how often he has a draw and will raise the turnbet with it (which is close to zero, people aren't really semibluffing the turns, they do it on the flop). The second P*P is on the river I assume (since every draw misses that turn always, so P(draw miss)=1 on turn)

but wtf do you mean by "P(drawcall)"? both openender draws will call the turn always.

If you do make some equations, plz do try to write them so that someone could possibly understand them....

[urbansprawler]

I think it's pretty simple, and supports a turn bet. What exactly do you not understand?

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

I think it's pretty simple, and supports a turn bet. What exactly do you not understand?

idk probably I'm just too drunk but I think there's some minor flaw in your equation there...

He should pretty much call every draw always (not counting gutshots). His river bluffing frequency shouldn't be dictating our decision between bet or check here, because it's a clear valuebet.

If we have weaker hand and our main reason for betting the turn is to be able to check back the river, then your equation (if I'm right what you're trying to say, might be wrong) is good. Example: If we had topset here, we would bet for value even if we know he bluffs 100% of his missed draws on the river if we check back)

If we had A8 or sth, then we could bet smallish (like OP) on the turn just to be able to check back the river.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

idk probably I'm just too drunk but I think there's some minor flaw in your equation there...

He should pretty much call every draw always (not counting gutshots). His river bluffing frequency shouldn't be dictating our decision between bet/check here, because it's a clear valuebet.

If we have weaker hand and our main reason for betting the turn is to be able to check back the river, then your equation (if I'm right what you're trying to say, might be wrong) is good.

No, but you said

(unless I think villain is the kind who I'm expecting to bluffing any missed draw if I check the turn).

And I said that even if this was true, you should still probably bet.