TPTK against a really aggro LAG

[Kleanthes]

Villian is LAG running 54/8 agg. factor 2.5
he calls preflop raises 45% of the time, stats are based on 238hands. What do you think is the right play here?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($21.59)
MP ($16.89)
Hero (CO) ($43.22)
Button ($25.33)
SB ($40.02)
BB ($27.81)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, A
UTG bets $0.80, MP calls $0.80, Hero calls $0.80, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.30) Q, 4, 2 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $1.65, BB raises $27.01 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls $25.36

Turn: ($57.32) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($57.32) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $57.32

Results below:
BB had 2, 2 (three of a kind, twos).
Hero had Q, A (two pair, Aces and Queens).
Outcome: BB won $54.47

[urbansprawler]

I would 3-bet preflop; AQo is not exactly a hand to play multiway, even in position. Postflop is kind of ugh, I think statistics are practically useless here and you'll need to make a read based on the tendencies you've observed over the 200 hands you've played with him. Stats won't tell you everything, and this is a spot where two people with identical stats will often have completely different ranges.

[Nostalgica]

Don't like 3betting here unless you've seen UTG stack off very light or do a lot of 3betting 4betting (doubt it) since I'd hate to 3bet/fold AQ vs a lagtard. That said I'd puke fold flop. His AF isn't THAT high, and despite him being loose in vpip, he may not actually have a very weak stack-off range.

[urbansprawler]

So you don't 3-bet any hands you plan to fold to a 4-bet vs unknowns? AQ is very close to the top of one's range preflop and opponents are definitely calling worse. Something like AT is debatable, but AQ is definitely a raise for me. I like 3-betting AQ far more than I do hands like TT and even JJ, it just plays a lot better when the money gets big postflop.

[mxrider]

The reason why he's saying he doesn't like 3 betting here is due to the fact that he has a strong hand that wants to play a pot in position. If we 3b and we get 4b from utg, we have to let it go. By just flatting, you keep a much wider range in play and can extract more value postflop.

[Nostalgica]

I'd much rather have TT and JJ, as I am happy to stack off those hands (he will call 3bets with a LOT of pps) postflop if the flop is low. In fact AQ is bad because a large part of his call 3bet range will be pocket pairs--lots of donks "set mine" with all pocket pairs, and end up calling streets or stacking off with weak overpairs. AQ, therefore, is not really that ahead of their calling range, even if you include AJ, because pocketpairs are slightly ahead, and obv AK KK AA QQ are way ahead.

I'm okay with 3betting a hand like 88-JJ and play the pot in position, but if I am 3betting I am usually stacking off, yeah. Sure you can have a value 3bet/fold range, but not without reads, and only if there is a LOT of value 3betting AQ. While 3betting when you have a good hand is a good way of getting value it's not really THAT much better than flatting because you trap so many dominated hands by flatting.

[Qgel]

A fish overbetting like that almost never has a better hand. So you played it fine. Now that you know he does it with sets you could find folds in the future but readless this is pretty standard.

Oh and I wouldn't call a 54/8/2.5 a LAG more of a loose passive preflop with some spewy postflop business.

Preflop with a big fish in the blinds 3betting would be a crime unless he cold calls 3bets a lot.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by Nostalgica

I'd much rather have TT and JJ, as I am happy to stack off those hands (he will call 3bets with a LOT of pps) postflop if the flop is low. In fact AQ is bad because a large part of his call 3bet range will be pocket pairs--lots of donks "set mine" with all pocket pairs, and end up calling streets or stacking off with weak overpairs. AQ, therefore, is not really that ahead of their calling range, even if you include AJ, because pocketpairs are slightly ahead, and obv AK KK AA QQ are way ahead.

I'm okay with 3betting a hand like 88-JJ and play the pot in position, but if I am 3betting I am usually stacking off, yeah. Sure you can have a value 3bet/fold range, but not without reads, and only if there is a LOT of value 3betting AQ. While 3betting when you have a good hand is a good way of getting value it's not really THAT much better than flatting because you trap so many dominated hands by flatting.

You can't have a 3b/fold range without reads? That's essentially like saying you can't open-raise if you have to fold to a 3-bet. I'd like you to explain that.

In a vacuum, 3-betting JJ/TT is less +EV than 3-betting than AQ. The value is far thinner, especially with TT. No one will give you action with worse on low boards, which are the bulk of your equity. TT and JJ do not make strong pairs, they are easily crushed and are often better to flat-call rather than 3-bet.

UTG has to be a serious nit for me not to 3-bet in this spot. AQ is in the top 3.9% of hands. You don't want to miss 2/3 of the time and fold, you want to be the aggressor and going for value where-ever you can.

The value made from RIO'ing a loose opponent postflop and getting folds preflop is much better than playing your hands for IO hoping to hit a top pair.

Qgel, 3-betting is not a crime either. The fish will likely call 3-bets almost as wide as open-raises because he is so loose from those stats. If 2 people call, that's the same result had you not 3-bet, except now you have them committed with a much weaker range and if you don't hit TP on the flop you have the liberty of seeing a 4th card.

[Qgel]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Qgel, 3-betting is not a crime either. The fish will likely call 3-bets almost as wide as open-raises because he is so loose from those stats. If 2 people call, that's the same result had you not 3-bet, except now you have them committed with a much weaker range and if you don't hit TP on the flop you have the liberty of seeing a 4th card.

Crime may be an exaggeration but you cannot assume that he will cold call 14 bbs almost as often as 4 bbs not closing the action (he may not care about the latter but still). We almost certainly fold out 2/3 or more of his single raise calling range. If we have proof that this is not true and that he'll still cold call with stuff like Q4s then 3betting becomes better but from my experience this is usually not the case even for 54/8 guys.

3betting in that spot is definitely +EV, in fact in that spot it's often +EV to 3bet any 2 cards as a bluff if our image is clean and our opponents have at least half a brain. But then it would be a waste to 3bet AQ as a bluff so if we're 3betting we obviously are 3betting AQ for value. That may or may not be too thin, depends on our read on the UTG which wasn't provided by OP. Assuming UTG is an abc tag kinda guy 3betting for value is usually gonna be a little too thin.

Now if we add into the equation the 54/8 guy who is still left to act and whom we have position on I think it dictates that calling is more +EV than 3betting. Under different table dynamics 3betting could become the optimal line but not in this case.