NL25 rush: overs+bckdr nut-flushdraw against a raisy villain

[podbelski]

Another hand from past "rush" days, seemed standard while played (maybe cbet a little bigger), but today I was looking through all histories and found HEM shows the opp as LAGgy, and his "raise cbet" stat is 50%.

The question is, if I knew this when I saw the flop, should I adjust? I'm sure my hand is good quite often here, and have room to improve to the best... Maybe check-call to reevaluate the turn is a better play?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($25.35)
Hero (UTG) ($31.48)
MP ($44.86)
CO ($25)
Button ($10)
SB ($12.76)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 5, 7, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, CO raises to $4.50, Hero folds

Total pot: $4.85 | Rake: $0.24

[podbelski]

cmon, anybody say smthing

maybe 3betting is +EV?

[Qgel]

I'd cbet a bit more on the flop as a default for both bluffs and valuebets. But it might also not be a bad idea to use exploitable betsizes at 25nl rush given how big the player pool is.

Don't overvalue bare stats. You would have to provide with a lot more information before we could justify making a play on the flop. What I mean is, if he is an 8/5 nit then it makes sense that he has a hand 50% of the time worth raising for value, while if the guy is 80/50 then he is clearly bluffing way more often than value raising. Sample size is also important, 50% could be over 2 instances which is pretty meaningless.

In most cases, once we get raised, we cannot continue with the hand without spewing, especially with the flush draw on board.

[podbelski]

Thx, assuming sample size is about 150 hands, with like 50% raise cbet over 12 opportunities, with preflop stats 28VPIP/21PFR/4af, what would you aim for basically? Standart bet-fold, or check-call to reevaluate, or bet-3bet?

I'm expecting him to raise the majority of his range here, especially with connectors/pocket pairs. I like bet-3bet, he will really have tough decision to continue, but it might be costly. I have a blocker for nutflushdraw.

[Qgel]

My default is still to B/fold but he does seem very aggresive. Given that it's CO vs UTG his range is probably tighter because your range is tighter. I would just take a note that he raised a smallish cbet on dry board and move on. If he does it again we will be certain that his range on dry boards is heavily skewed towards bluffs so then we can definitely go ahead and make a play. But again, I'm not a big fan of doing it when there's a flush draw on board as it means he is more likely to have a hand he can get it in with.

[podbelski]

Ok, thank you for advice

[Nostalgica]

I like a betfold regardless. Such an aggressive player is going to stab vs your checks anyway, and bet/3bet is quite sketchy. Not horrible I suppose. bet/call, lead turn maybe.