Overpair AA oop against a TAG 3-bet spot

[Kleanthes]

Villian is a TAG running 18/13 agg. factor 2.7
Played ok? his range to call my 3-bet? 22+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs+ or something else? what do you think?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($14.28)
UTG ($26.82)
MP ($24.88)
Button ($24.25)
Hero (SB) ($35.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
1 fold, MP bets $0.60, 1 fold, Hero raises $2.50, 1 fold, MP calls $2

Flop: ($5.40) Q, Q, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.40, MP calls $3.40

Turn: ($12.20) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, MP calls $8

River: ($28.20) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $10

Total pot: $48.20

Results below:
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and Queens).
MP didn't show
Outcome: Hero won $45.80

[given1982]

I don't think you sized your bets very well, but bet/bet/bet is definitely the best line.

[Qgel]

3bet a little smaller pre. Postflop played fine, could bet slightly less on flop and turn because you inflated the pot preflop such that there's less than 1/2 pot bet left on the river now.

[tmiby]

what's the reason of betting 10bucks on the river, when villain has something like 11 or 12 left???
shove it dude!

i like the play

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by given1982

I don't think you sized your bets very well, but bet/bet/bet is definitely the best line.

Huh? What's wrong with it?

[given1982]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Huh? What's wrong with it?

It's impossible to balance betting 63% of pot, then 66% of pot, then 35% of pot with bluffs.

[podbelski]

I'm having trouble planning betsizes for 3streets as well, it is hard to come with quick solution when you also must think about your line and opp's range connecting with a board...

I have simple formulae for 2-streets planning though I think it is quite a common knowledge, but I came to it by my own. So, if the pot is PotS, effective stacksize is EffStack, and you wonder how much BetS should you bet now to smoothly stick in on the next street, it is:

BetS >= (EffStack - PotS) / 3

so, you should bet slightly more than the result of above equation.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by given1982

It's impossible to balance betting 63% of pot, then 66% of pot, then 35% of pot with bluffs.

He never has bluffs betting this board 3 streets in a row anyway, or so I would assume so that's irrelevant. If he had bet over 2/3 pot on every street, this thin value play would become -EV. Betting any more on the river is overreping AA imo.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.250% 56.25% 00.00% 108 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 43.750% 43.75% 00.00% 84 0.00 { JJ-77, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo }


That's assuming he calls with the pp's as often as the Q's, but if he folds just one pp:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.154% 46.15% 00.00% 72 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 53.846% 53.85% 00.00% 84 0.00 { JJ-99, 77, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo }

[given1982]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

He never has bluffs betting this board 3 streets in a row anyway, or so I would assume so that's irrelevant. If he had bet over 2/3 pot on every street, this thin value play would become -EV. Betting any more on the river is overreping AA imo.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.250% 56.25% 00.00% 108 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 43.750% 43.75% 00.00% 84 0.00 { JJ-77, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo }


That's assuming he calls with the pp's as often as the Q's, but if he folds just one pp:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.154% 46.15% 00.00% 72 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 53.846% 53.85% 00.00% 84 0.00 { JJ-99, 77, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo }

I still prefer 1/2 pot, 1/2 pot, 1/2 pot on this board even if you will never be triple barrel bluffing. It makes cbet bluffs cheaper while not losing value with value hands.

[Nostalgica]

What's wrong with b-c-b? It's not clearly a spot we want to stack off or that we're good when villain calls three or even two streets (obv hero has the best hand in this case).

I'd c/c c/f turn river when I take this line, or tank crai turn to rep missed AK doing an FU ALL IN sort of thing. Occasionally I'll c/c c/c, but this will take some sick reads.

I'd overbet the river against a thinking player if I take this line, though, to balance my air range, since most of his range at this point that isn't a float is a weak pair type hand, I'd be overbetting my air since a normal bet will never get folds (and at the same time he SHOULD fold his air if I take the b-c-b line, but nobody ever does, idk why).

I don't think a lot of good players are smart enough to check back turn with trips.