50NL rush: Calling 3bet with AA: more value than 4betting?

[tmiby]

95% I raise (3bet, 4bet, 5bet,...) AA and KK 100bb deep. But it seems not standart anymore... is maybe calling a 3bet instead of 4betting better?

I saw this now about 5 times in the past two sessions I played:
People only call 3 bets with AA IP. Sometimes oop. And I lost so much money to them

very common is something like that:
I'm in CO 3bet JJ against MP opener. BTN calls. let's say blinds fold and MP folds.
we see low flop like 248. I cbet, BTN calls.
turn is something like another 4 and river maybe a T.

I still have an overpair and go broke here on the turn or river against unknown. Of course there are some scenarios and villains were I slow down on a certain board - just imagine a very dry board and your holding an overpair.

What do you think?
Please keep in mind, that I'm talking about 50NL rush

[Nostalgica]

Calling 3bets with overpairs is fine on occasion especially when villain 3bet/folds a lot and never 4bet shoves bluff. Without these reads though, it is best to 4bet them, especially if you 4bet bluff.

Against an unknown, I would say that I prefer a 4bet. Don't think flatting is bad.

Also, you were 3betting JJ to stack off anyway, so them flatting AA actually is good for you giving you a chance to fold occasionally or seeing showdown cheap if the board is super wet, and you can check back some flops, etc.

[podbelski]

Hmm, I haven't seen anyone flatting 3bets with AA @rush yet... TBH, I don't think it is good play as a default, only if you have some reads on villain that make you think underreping AA will be more profitable, then it's fine to attempt trapping. What you can play with is betsizing when 3/4 betting your AA, simply put you should rep weaker hands/re-bluff by your actions pre, this might induce light shoves in the right spots.

For your example, IMO those jacks were overplayed. I don't see any worse hand calling 3streets to stack off in that situation. Yes, flop is called by any pair or AKs-like hand with backdoors. Turn betsize should be really small to keep as many worse hands in as possible. River is either check-fold or gayblockingbet-fold. In most cases here, by betting big 3streets you valuetowning yourself against QQ+ or sets, and splitting with another JJ.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by Nostalgica

Calling 3bets with overpairs is fine on occasion especially when villain 3bet/folds a lot and never 4bet shoves bluff. Without these reads though, it is best to 4bet them, especially if you 4bet bluff.

Against an unknown, I would say that I prefer a 4bet. Don't think flatting is bad.

Also, you were 3betting JJ to stack off anyway, so them flatting AA actually is good for you giving you a chance to fold occasionally or seeing showdown cheap if the board is super wet, and you can check back some flops, etc.

Uhhh I'd 4b AA as well but I don't see why you should stack JJ without any reads. Just a standard 3b/fold, no different from AQ or KQ.

In general, slowplaying overpairs preflop is going to cost you money when QQ folds and you hit top set with the A or he hits a K. AK is not going to ship postflop very often without hitting and you hold blockers so that's not too good.

You'd need a 3b bluff range and/or a postflop bluff/continuation range to be sufficiently wide enough to counteract that. Versus some more aggro players, this is definitely not only plausible but true. However, most people are not that aggressive.

Fish also call 4-bets with weird shit and then go nuts postflop because of the odds.

Anybody who flat-calls 3-bets with AA usually is making a big mistake by making their 4b range much weaker and you'll thus be able to jam your QQ/AK.

[Nostalgica]

Flatting AA improves their call3bet ranges. I almost never flat 3bets, but lots of very good players will be flatting 3bets with AA preflop if you watch say aejones or jason senti, phil galfond, I've seen all of them do it semi-recently. That said I do think 4betting as a standard is correct, and nobody is arguing otherwise. It is wrong, in a higher level game with dynamic, however, to assume that it is nec. worse. To say that it's *always* a *big* mistakes shows a very narrow PoV. It's certainly the best choice for a new player at micro or even small stakes, but to use absolute words like that is really not good.

Again, I am ALL for just 4betting 100%, but it's definitely a leak if you have no AA KK in a call 3bet range to have fun with your flop-raise range in a 3bet pot.

3betting JJ to stack off is super standard. In an aggressive 6max game, you will not see people 3bet/folding JJ in an aggressive game ever. If hero 3bet/folded in that spot, I'd cry. Waste of JJ. If villain's range is that strong (you just said that people spew in 4bet pots, so JJ obv you cannot fold, I don't follow your logic?) then you should call to setmine/trap. You can def trap with overpairs because players except tags to never have overpairs and think you're polarized when you raise dry flops and have set or air and call down very light.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by Nostalgica

3betting JJ to stack off is super standard. In an aggressive 6max game, you will not see people 3bet/folding JJ in an aggressive game ever. If hero 3bet/folded in that spot, I'd cry. Waste of JJ. If villain's range is that strong (you just said that people spew in 4bet pots, so JJ obv you cannot fold, I don't follow your logic?) then you should call to setmine/trap. You can def trap with overpairs because players except tags to never have overpairs and think you're polarized when you raise dry flops and have set or air and call down very light.

Run a HEM filter on 4b/call JJ at under 100NL and then see if you still agree with what you posted here.

[Nostalgica]

I find it strange that everyone seems to challenge me and ask me to post up stats for certain situations with the strong implication that I do not understand poker as much as they do or adequetely. I wonder if any of you realize that this is insulting?

It is a justifiable request if there is grounds for it, but it becomes a problem when I people makes these challenges every other thread without conclusive proof that they are right.

As such, I will post my stats, but I request that you post your stats, along with your winrate for JJ with these filters:

JJ, PFR = True, Did3Bet = True, Folded to Preflop 4 Bet = True

Filter: NL/PL last 18 months



JJ



More Filters: PFR = True, Did3Bet = True, Faced 4bet = True, Folded to Preflop 4 Bet = False



The first two graphs are to show that this is NOT over a small sample of hands, even if the situation comes up very rarely.

Unfortunately, samples for 4betting JJ are really lacking (only 52 hands, and had 289bb/100 and 502evbb/100, obv overly small sample). This data is not enough to prove that I WIN in this situation, but I imagine this winrate lot higher than your stats will be for 3bet/folding JJ, and enough to prove that it's better than 3bet/folding.

[urbansprawler]

That's probably biased because you're shipping vs opponents you should be and not versus standards. I don't know how you can come up with a reasonable range 5b-calling range for an opponent for a decent opponent in HU where you can be profitable. You'd definitely need a dynamic.

Is this coming from the same guy who wouldn't 3b AQ as a default?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.255% 56.11% 01.14% 294018108 5977434.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.745% 41.60% 01.14% 217992048 5977434.00 { JJ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.124% 52.08% 01.04% 304987776 6112398.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 46.876% 45.83% 01.04% 268395396 6112398.00 { JJ }

[podbelski]

So, if the game is not very aggressive, I conclude JJ should not be 3bet pre? If you know the opp's 4bet range is {QQ+/some AK}, and you say 3bet-folding JJ is a waste, what other reasons for 3betting could be?

From my point of view, it can't be that simple. E.g. if the villain has wide 3bet-flatting range I'm ahead of but 4bets with QQ+ I'm perfectly fine to make my life easier, and 3bet-fold pre for value.
There should be other special conditions that make 3bet-folding JJ at least a viable play, like if you just flat other players behind will make your life tough, and if you 3bet you make them harder to play at you, but you intend to fold if original raiser 4bets...

[Nostalgica]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

That's probably biased because you're shipping vs opponents you should be and not versus standards. I don't know how you can come up with a reasonable range 5b-calling range for an opponent for a decent opponent in HU where you can be profitable. You'd definitely need a dynamic.

Is this coming from the same guy who wouldn't 3b AQ as a default?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.255% 56.11% 01.14% 294018108 5977434.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.745% 41.60% 01.14% 217992048 5977434.00 { JJ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.124% 52.08% 01.04% 304987776 6112398.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 46.876% 45.83% 01.04% 268395396 6112398.00 { JJ }

Wait, how's that biased?

That's probably biased because you're shipping vs opponents you should be

Are you saying I'm SUPPOSED to be shipping vs opponents I shouldn't be? Well no shit, sherlock, I'm not going to 3bet/ship vs a nit. I'm not a retard.

I've shown that I am 3bet/5betting JJ vs the correct opponents, yes, and it certainly makes more money than 3bet/folding because if you 3bet to say 10bbs per hand, you'd be losing 1000bb/100 on average, and I daresay while my data is small in sample, because I don't 3bet JJ much, I definitely make more than -1kbb/100.

You requested that I post up my stats, I did. I requested you put up your stats, you didn't. Do you see an inconsistency here?

Now there is one thing these stats do not show, which is my profitability in flatting JJ preflop, vs your profitability in 3betting JJ, sometimes to fold.

I've already explained that in some situations this is theoretically true, but for all practical purposes, especially in rush where you have no reads, you do NOT want to 3bet/fold JJ. Because a) you may be folding a best hand or a coinflip, b) you may get more value by flat calling and trapping, inducing bluffs or fooling your opponent by stacking off top pair or draw vs your overpair.

So in short, I am arguing firstly that 3bet/stacking off JJ is NOT unprofitable, which I have clearly clearly shown.

Secondly: flatting JJ is more profitable in many spots where you can 3bet/fold, and in the spots where 3bet/folding is better, the difference is small. In the spots where flatting is better, the difference can be extreme. In short, I feel that my method of playing JJ (flatting more, and never 3bet/folding HU) is superior. Since you disagree, please show me your stats for playing JJ at 25NL and 50NL in the past year or so, including EV, etc. This should fix some things up. Oh, also, I played 24 tables, thought I'd mention.

In addition, why don't we look at our profitability with JJ in 3bet pots? Two stats: JJ where you called a 3bet, and JJ where you 3bet yourself. Let's see how we do, okay?

So, if the game is not very aggressive, I conclude JJ should not be 3bet pre? If you know the opp's 4bet range is {QQ+/some AK}, and you say 3bet-folding JJ is a waste, what other reasons for 3betting could be?

3bet air or hands that play better in isolation and profit from protection, such as AK AQ KQ. This is what I am saying.

Flatting makes life easier because you can pot control, especially IP, you can hit sets, you can fold postflop if the situation is right. Why is everyone so afraid to play a flop with JJ?

The value of 3betting JJ vs opponents and flatting is close. In a lot of cases flatting is better because it disguises your hand and removes your "strong" hand ranges from your perceived range, and makes him more likely to make multi barrel bluffs, bet/3bet bluffs, or make them stack off very light. This value + not getting value towned occasionally by flatting and folding postflop, can be worth more than the 6-7 bbs extra you gain from 3betting when 3betting does not actually make your hand play better that much (how do you quantify this?) when it may cause you to spew having a strong pair in a 3bet pot, whereas you can make good calldowns in 2bet pots because your range is weak and villain has more bluffs in his range.

I quote "Let There Be Range" by CTS and Slowhabit:

"From the examples we've shown, we hope you recognize occasionally flatting with QQ+ and AQ+ from the blinds against an aggressive opponent is not a bad idea... having a reputation for these hands in your range allows you to check-raise bluff more because there are more combinations for you to check-raise for value with..."

This responds to your comment on how flatting QQ+ AK can weaken your 4bet range-- it improves your postflop value range. Also you can stack off and 4bet shove 22-66 or K4 mixed in with KK occasionally and 4bet/call lots of JJ TT type hands, btw.

Oh, also, if you think people will squeeze vs your JJ, then obviously 4bet vs the squeeze and snap a shove...