NL50: overpair facing strong leads from passive nit

[podbelski]

The opp was playing very tight&passive for a couple of orbits (I think he played like 1-2 hands no more, without SD). Besides that, I had stats for him from rush and they are like 10VPIP/2PFR/0.2AF etc.

So, for this hand, I have basically two questions:
- can I consider going to SD in any way, e.g. raising the flop or calling down?
- if you think I'm beat, can I get away from it cheaper, like raise-folding the flop or folding the turn?

He donked fast, then bet turn without hesitation, and instashoved river. It's either a total desperate bluff (impossible here), overplayed AQ+ (can't beleive once he shoves river like that), flopped set (likely but I can't imagine he fires river like that UI), or AQ-spades that fits very well into these actions...




Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (UTG) ($60.50)
MP ($54.55)
CO ($49.70)
Button ($21.60)
SB ($52.35)
BB ($19.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $1.75, 3 folds, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) 4, 7, Q (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($12) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12

River: ($36) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $34.60 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $36 | Rake: $1.80

[practice]

Shove the turn if u decide to just call the flop. No point slowplaying on a draw heavy board like that. If he has a set, then eff it and reload...

[Nostalgica]

I agree with a turn shove. There is value with our hand, lots of his hands call, and stacking off the turn gives us much better equity vs his range than a river stack off would, especially on such a terrible river.

As played, I cry fold actually.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by practice

Shove the turn if u decide to just call the flop. No point slowplaying on a draw heavy board like that. If he has a set, then eff it and reload...

This baat your statss are quite weak-tight indeed. If shampoo is big enough and you have good eyebrows, I origami. River is definitely a fold

[podbelski]

His nittiness/passiveness combined with sudden aggression really upset me, I thought what a hand can he have playing like that?

So, for the flop I'm putting him on this range:

Board: 4s 7d Qd
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.543% 22.03% 02.51% 4144 472.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 75.457% 72.95% 02.51% 13721 472.50 { QQ+, 77, 44, AQs }

Maybe you can add JJ as well, but it should fold to a flop raise or slow down at least by the river.


Turn:

Board: 4s 7d Qd 6s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.139% 16.51% 02.63% 138 22.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 80.861% 78.23% 02.63% 654 22.00 { QQ+, 77, 44, AQs }



I mean, there should be more weaker hands in his range for me to stack off, and as I said he plays hell of a nitty/passive.

I wonder what range do you assign him that {KK} is ahead of by the turn?