NL50: strange spot with AK

[podbelski]

The opp is a losing LAG, no relevant reads.
After playing 98 hands he's got 26VP/18PFR/1.4AF/38Steal.

First, he never raised so big previously, his opens were 2.5bb or 3bb. I assume his range is {QQ+, AKs}. Not sure about AQ/AKo/JJ, I think there is a small chance he play them like that.

I guess check-raising this flop is a best play, if you like check-calling more pls comment why. After he called, I think Q/K/J are the worst turn cards, and we've got one...

How do you play turn&river here?



Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($102.55)
Button ($60)
Hero (SB) ($58.05)
BB ($58.80)
UTG ($18.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
2 folds, Button bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.50) 4, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5.50, Hero raises to $13, Button calls $7.50

Turn: ($31.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $12.25, Button calls $12.25

River: ($56) Q (2 players)
Hero ?

[urbansprawler]

That's not a LAG. 26/18/1.4 isn't loose, nor is it aggressive at all.

I don't like not 3-betting pre tbh, if his range is that tight you should just fold anyway imo. But I doubt that it's really so nitty and I'd reraise for sure.

Why did you c/r flop if his range is so strong? Are you trying to bluff him off AK? Why'd you bet on the turn? And why so small?

I think every street in this hand is a giant question mark and I don't agree with any of the plays you made here. Maybe I'm not getting something, idk?

The biggest problem here imo is the flop check-raise. If his range is so incredibly nitty, there's really no reason to turn your hand into a bluff. I guess in the rare situation that you thought he had a lot of A's and K's in his range preflop, a high fold to 3-bet %, but a low fold to c/r %, then you could keep his range wide pre and play TPTK like this. But in that case, the Q doesn't change anything and you should've just jammed.

As played, I think shoving is best as you're almost always splitting with AK but i think P (he folds AK) > P (QQ, AQ, or AA) and the money you'd win is pretty substantial too. You overrepresented your hand as a set and now you have to follow through with the triple barrel I guess.

[podbelski]

Well yeah stats do not represent a "good LAG", it doesn't matter though.

I was thinking about folding pre, I'm OOP, I should hope for an A, or maybe flushdraw... Just end up calling to see the flop.

The reason for check-raise is I'm pretty sure I'm good on the flop, so want my money in, and I'm OOP so I need to lead any turn or fear he will check behind (if I check-call the flop). Combining the facts: 1) his PFR size 2) two aces out 3) likeliness of AK is less than big PP, I decided he's more likely to be on KK/QQ. And the flop is so dry that it is hard for him to beleive my check-raise is not a bluff. And he did called.

The reason I don't like turned Q is two-fold: he still might have QQ, and he could have put me on QQ turned into bluff. Anyway, I'd love some kind of deuce on the turn much more than a Q.

If I'm beat or splitting the turn bet size does not matter. If he has worse hand, he's more likely to call (or bluff-raise?) smallish bet, that what I'm thinking of.

[urbansprawler]

I think leading the flop to get value from JJ-KK is going to get you way more calls than check/raising. You don't have any reads on that player, and knowing your nitty style, he probably doesn't have many reads on you yet. Your table image was also most likely very tight (I could be wrong, though, please tell me if I am) and I doubt he thinks you have some kind of 87s airball often enough to call there with a PP.

If his range is truly {QQ+, AK, AQs} I think you make a lot more money leading the flop for 3/4 pot and then making smallish (1/2 pot) bets on the turn and river than you do check/raising the flop.

[podbelski]

Yeah I'm always tight, unless good cards streak makes my stats above 25. Well, what you say makes sense for me...

[Nostalgica]

It could be a misclick you know? Urbansprawler is correct; that is not very loose at all, it's barely SLAG.

In any case, I actually think your line is okay IF you shove river, purely to get value. The second Q actually removes a lot of Qx from his range because AQ is somewhat likely to raise turn, QQ is unlikely also, and now AJ is only beat by AQ and AK, with AQ being unlikely due to card removal, and you rarely having Qx because those aren't draws and you'd not always barrel turn with them.

I'd shove for value.

[podbelski]

Yep I shoved and he snap-folded. Cool if I made him fold AK But after all this I see his hand is most likely KK

Preflop, I almost timed out while thinking wtf could this be, basically I decided that calling cannot be bad, but if I 3bet and he 4bets I'll lose pretty hand and about 15bbs, without seeing a flop

[AlphaScorpii]

I can't really believe that he had KK. Firstly he had opportuinity to check flop and then he could muck twice but didn't.

Firstly he could check flop. Then he could fold flop after your re-raise and after he could fold turn after your bet.

This looks to me more like some Ax which he decided to fold. He may also think that you have a set becouse probobly you would've played it like this.

[kgu1]

I think the biggest mistake in this hand was not 3-betting pf. A 3-bet here is ideal because you're OOP the rest of the hand and you want your opponent to define their hand. On the BTN, villain could have anything here, so his range has to be more defined, accomplished by a 3-bet. As played though, I don't mind the check-raise on the flop. You're getting value from AT-AQ and if opponent has JJ-KK, they're going to be folding to your bet anyways on the turn/river. It's not like by calling the flop, you're going to get another bet out of villain on the turn if they hold JJ-KK. I'd say villain most likely had AT/AJ here.

[Qgel]

You're seeing monsters under the bed, pod I would fist pump 3bet this every single time until I knew specifically that a 5x open from this player meant a huge hand. The way I see it, this "bad lag" is putting extra 2bbs of dead money in the pot on a steal and I'm more than happy to take it.

But since you flatted your line is probably best postflop. He seems too passive to valuebet own himself with a worse ace so might as well help him out Although he did pot it on the flop so just because of that C/Calling seems viable as well. There's not much of a decision left on the river. He will often snap call with any ace thinking it's a split now so just shove.