AQ flops top pair on monotone flop

[mxrider]

villlain is 36/18/2.9 over 125 hands. What's our play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($10.60)
Button ($11.55)
SB ($9)
Hero ($18.30)
UTG ($18.20)
MP ($15.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q.
3 folds, Button raises to $0.4, SB calls $0.35, Hero raises to $1.6, Button calls $1.20, SB folds.

OK squeeze here??????

Flop: ($3.60) 5, J, A (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button raises to $9.95, Hero?????

[ahog012]

pretty quick fold here for me, with such a large raise im putting him on 2 pair. think you may be safe from a flush but possibly AJ here from villan?

EDIT: love the preflop play, im squeezing everytimne with AQ

[given1982]

I like preflop. I get it in here against an aggro getting better than 2:1.

[ahog012]

hmm getting it in you reckon? just noticed its 20nl not 25nl so we actually have less than i thought behind us.... what range do you put the villan on?

[TheDeKay]

@ahog: It's 10NL ^^

Hm, really depending on my opinion of him. Is he shoving draws? Is he calling your 3bets /w AT or A9? Is he bluffing in 3bet pots? Cause without any knowlege we have to fold here, I think.

With bluffs and weak A
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.610% 32.58% 08.03% 13223 3260.50 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 59.390% 51.36% 08.03% 20846 3260.50 { AA, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JJ, TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, ATs+, As9s, AJo+, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, 7d2c, 7d2h, 7h2d, 7h2s, 7s2h }

With some optimism (he is bluffing his pp with one club)
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.470% 19.87% 09.60% 6294 3042.00 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 70.530% 60.93% 09.60% 19302 3042.00 { AA, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JJ, TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, AJs+, AJo+ }

Worst case:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.038% 07.27% 12.77% 1728 3033.00 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 79.962% 67.20% 12.77% 15966 3033.00 { AA, JJ, AJs+, AJo+ }

[Paddymctaff]

I wouldnt even call i a squeeze tbh, its a raise for value given how wide their ranges are. I swear and fold..

[mxrider]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

With some optimism (he is bluffing his pp with one club)
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.470% 19.87% 09.60% 6294 3042.00 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 70.530% 60.93% 09.60% 19302 3042.00 { AA, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JJ, TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, AJs+, AJo+ }

Interesting, as this is about the range that I had in mind and in the particular moment, felt I had better equity on this.
I also think that we can fairly safely eliminate AA, KK from his range here as he is likely shoving here vs 2 opponents. QQ might just call the 3 bet to evaluate a flop. Pocket pairs with a club and AJ are the most likely holdings in my opinion now that I look at this more in depth.