AJs flops nutdraw facing flop shove

[mxrider]

~30 hands on villain so not much to go on but he is 33/1.6/.8 over that time period.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($10.70)
BB ($7.40)
UTG ($11)
Hero ($25.10)
Button ($13.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.05) 8, T, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $7.05 (All-In), Hero???

[Paddymctaff]

surely an insta call with ur equity?

[given1982]

Originally Posted by Paddymctaff

surely an insta call with ur equity?

Actually, we need 46.5% equity to break even calling this. To get up that high, villain has to be open shoving worse flush draws, OESDs, and top pairs into 2 players, including the preflop raiser. I don't think we can assume that someone who has only shown passivity so far is doing that. I probably fold here.

[Paddymctaff]

But if he has a strong hand then why would he over shove like this? If u take that into account then its close. ur right though

[loltrickedu]

insta call