Top pair, 2nd kicker river decision

[trwhitt]

Much better session today to make up for yesterday's nonsense. This hand stood out since I don't normally find myself in this situation and was kinda lost as to the best action on the river again. Villain's first orbit, 2nd hand, and no datamined stats.

Villain SB ($48.25 in chips)
BB ($10.79 in chips)
UTG ($13.33 in chips)
Hero CO ($34.26 in chips)
Button ($36.03 in chips)

*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DOWNFALLFA [Qd Kd]
UTG Raises $1 to $1, Hero calls $1, Button folds, SB raises $1.90 to $2, BB folds, UTG and Hero call

I misclicked preflop; lined up a 3bet and hit call instead. After the min 3bet and call though, I think you have to call this in position given the pot odds.

*** FLOP *** [4d Qs 5c] Pot: $6.25
SB bets $1.50, UTG folds, Hero calls

That's about as good a flop as I can reasonably hope for, but I can't see raising here, since it's going to fold out worse and only get called/raised with even or better. Then again, the min-3bet preflop is a pretty good indicator that villain may very well be a fish and might think QJ or QT is the nuts.

*** TURN *** [4d Qs 5c] [9s] Pot: $9.25
Villain bets $1.50, Hero calls.

Once again, I'm sticking money in here, I'm just not sure whether or not to raise.

*** RIVER *** [4d Qs 5c 9s] [8s] Pot: $12.25
Villain checks, Hero ???

Villain only has $5.79 behind, i.e. less than half pot, so a bet should put him in. I'm just not 100% on whether to bet or not. I can't see him checking aces, kings, queens, a set, two pair, or AQ on that river, but a couple of draws got there and he might be shy. His PF min 3bet and his subsequent small bets incline my to believe that he may be a bit timid/passive. Do we get calls here with tens, jacks, or a random queen here often enough to justify the bet?

Any thoughts about the river, or any other street welcome.

Cheers,

TRW

[no eff eks]

Yeah, I definitely bet his remaining stack when he checks the river. You're usually good here even if you weren't this time.

After the misclick pre-flop I would play this the same. I'd probably fold to a river shove tbh.

[Colossos159]

As played:
I'd put him all in based on his river check. Villain's line seems very weak to me with his small bets on the flop and turn. Seems like he is afraid of the Q. So I'd put him on 1010 or AK. I believe he would raise JJ much more preflop unless he is really afraid to lose money. Any other lower pocket pair he wouldnt have raised preflop. He wouldnt check AQ on the river.

Flop play:
Can someone explain me why not to raise his ridiculous bet on the flop and pick up the pot right there with our mediocre hand. Would he really bet that small with AA/KK? If reraised you are most likely behind and can safely fold. By calling you are giving him free cards to outdraw you (any ace). And if he calls your raise, you can still check the turn or river (you have position) and keep the pot small that way.

Interesting hand. Would really like other's opinions.

[no eff eks]

Originally Posted by Colossos159

Flop play:
Can someone explain me why not to raise his ridiculous bet on the flop and pick up the pot right there with our mediocre hand. Would he really bet that small with AA/KK? If reraised you are most likely behind and can safely fold. By calling you are giving him free cards to outdraw you (any ace). And if he calls your raise, you can still check the turn or river (you have position) and keep the pot small that way.

It's a WA/WB situation really. Giving a free card isn't a big deal since either we're drawing to 2-3 outs, or they are drawing to 2-5 outs. By raising we really just shut out all the hands we are way ahead of, and commit ourselves to getting it in when we're crushed.

I'd rather allow a short stack like this lead the action, then decide on the river whether or not to get it all in. When I raise it's because I think it's going to win me more money than calling/folding, in this case I don't think raising is going to win us any more money than calling.