PLO100: We have to call... right?

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

Actually, there's 2 spots where this hand works great:

1) 3bet HU pot in position
2) limped/singleraised multiway (at least 4 people) pot.

In first case, we have overpair value and we can profitably play our FDs aggressively. In the second one we are mainly looking to flop a top set, getting great implied odds.

When we see the flop 5-way flopping a set of queens has huge implied odds. Pot has so much dead money, that people will be stacking off with draws that have 8 outs to the nuts and also hands as weak as overpairs (in many flops).

If we don't flop gin (set of queens, 346, 46Jr, 557, 775, 777, 555 and such) we are getting away cheap.

Okay, this isn't set mining in NLHE where you hit and you have the nuts. This is PLO where you hit a set and you're 66-33. A lot of your sets will be on super wet boards like QT9sss. Will you really fold there?

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Okay, this isn't set mining in NLHE where you hit and you have the nuts. This is PLO where you hit a set and you're 66-33. A lot of your sets will be on super wet boards like QT9sss. Will you really fold there?

We are getting the odds to stack off even in 9TQ monotone, as you probably know...

But as I already said, it is 5-way and SPR is very low on the flop -> PEOPLE STACK OFF ULTRA LIGHT.

We might get our money in 3way (+ we still got that huge amount of dead money) with something like 60% equity when we hit. Actually, I'd claim that it is somewhat avarage situation (when we flop a set). That S:P ratio really changes the postflop play dramatically.

Yes, it is very marginal with hand as weak (/non-nutty) as we have, but I still think that limp-calling is slightly better than limp-folding or folding in this spot.

If I wouldn't want to play this hand, I wouldn't limp at all. But if you limp, you should be calling in this spot. I agree that this hand can be folded preflop if you prefer so, but I would never limp-fold this when we are last to call PFR and getting into 5way pot.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

We are getting the odds to stack off even in 9TQ monotone, as you probably know...

As I already said, it is 5-way and SPR is very low on the flop -> PEOPLE STACK OFF ULTRA LIGHT.

Lolwut? 5-way flop and people stack off ultra-light? You might set-over-set someone but you will usually be 66-33 so I'll make your average EV 75% when you hit.

I don't know how long you've been playing Omaha but even with that monster flop I'm not sure you should be calling. If you do, it's really just for pot odds unless the other guys are total spazztards.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Lolwut? 5-way flop and people stack off ultra-light? You might set-over-set someone but you will usually be 66-33 so I'll make your average EV 75% when you hit.

I don't know how long you've been playing Omaha but even with that monster flop I'm not sure you should be calling. If you do, it's really just for pot odds unless the other guys are total spazztards.

You don't get it. When there's like 30bb of dead money in the pot, stacking off with 8 outer becomes +EV play. The pot is so huge, that people HAVE TO stack off lighter. I know that many microstakes nutpeddling regulars don't do that, but they are in fact losing money because of it.

Most microstakes PLO grinders are too afraid to stack off light, while on the other hand the microfish are calling down marginal in verywrong spots... They are completely different kind of mistakes, but still both bad.

For example singleraised 67Qr flop 3way, both villains have 70bb stacks, when you have KKT9, what do you do when you're first to act? I've seen people bet-fold or check-call in this spot. It's god awful.

When you check-raise you always have at least 6 outs to the nuts and sets are the only realistic hands that you're far behind (still got 6 outs).

On QT9 monotone we never have the best hand, but we still got a boat draw with 35% (or something, can't remember exactly) equity, so it is easily +EV to stack off 3way with dead money in the pot.

----

There's a great example of this in one of DeucesCracked/BlueFirePoker video where Phil Galfond is sweating Whitelime playing PLO1k.

They 3bet KKxx preflop and flop comes 4 or5 way, something like Q47r and they bet-call 200BB deep (as they should).

Are you really saing that you wouldn't stack off with top two on a drawy board when you have less than 3x the pot behind you?

Lolwut? 5-way flop and people stack off ultra-light? You might set-over-set someone but you will usually be 66-33 so I'll make your average EV 75% when you hit.

If we got avarage EV of 75% with that much dead money in the pot (+ possibly even 3-4way allin on flop) it becomes +EV to setmine.

[urbansprawler]

I didn't say I'd fold, I said it would be -EV from the start.

Actually now that I've relooked at this particular flop, this is probably closer to a fold than call. If anything, you're only calling for odds value.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Actually now that I've relooked at this particular flop, this is probably closer to a fold than call. If anything, you're only calling for odds value.

Combinatorics make 57xx twice as likely as 77xx , and the fact that 77xx hands are awful makes 57xx even more likely. Any trips will also shove this flop.

So it is an easy call on the flop, but it's not like we have a huge equity against their range...

For example if there's 77xx 10% time, 57xx 30% of the time and 5 + overcards rest of the time (and other one has overpair+ dead FD)... our equity is still not like mega great.

The main reason for me posting this was really just "wtf, there can only be 1 other full house/trips, why are so many people stacking off?" than what to do.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

Combinatorics make 57xx twice as likely as 77xx , and the fact that 77xx hands are awful makes 57xx even more likely. Any trips will also shove this flop.

So it is an easy call on the flop, but it's not like we have a huge equity against their range...

For example if there's 77xx 10% time, 57xx 30% of the time and 5 + overcards rest of the time (and other one has overpair+ dead FD)... our equity is still not like mega great.

The main reason for me posting this was really just "wtf, there can only be 1 other full house/trips, why are so many people stacking off?" than what to do.

Exactly. I don't have the omaha pokerstove on this computer but the fact that you have almost no redraw outs to pair your queens and that someone can have 77 as well as the fact that you can be fending off as many as 18 overcards makes this either a very thin call or a clear fold.