NL100: set on 4straight 3way

[wrap_it]

BB 28/20
pretty passive. Calls a decent amount of opens, continues on a lot of flops.

BTN 44/15
typical station, has raised some cbets though

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($132.85)
MP ($46.55)
Button ($47.05)
Hero (SB) ($178.45)
BB ($134.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 5
2 folds, Button bets $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($6) 5, 7, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5, Button calls $5

Turn: ($21) 8 (3 players)
Hero ?

How do you continue now? I don't think the CO has too many 9x hands in his range (he folds naked gutters on the flop?!). The fish might have a few more combinations in his range but he can also peel the flop with any2. I'm more concerned of him having a 4.
If I bet now the CO prbly won't call me without a 9 or a better draw but can I squeeze more value out of the fish?

[AdrienD]

bet for value, but fold to a raise (assuming its a decent-sized raise and not min-reraise)
They call 1 more with all their 2 pair hands and probably raise a 9.
Plan for the river is to check/fold.

[TheDeKay]

I think, that we could check/c the turn here. Since our opponents seem pretty bad, we don't have to worry that much, that they read our hand. We won't get more than 1street of value from most of their hands anyways and imo they should be more likely to call a bet on the river than a bet on the turn. If one of them bets we can call, if we have the implied odds and if we hit on the river, we just open shove.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

I think, that we could check/c the turn here. Since our opponents seem pretty bad, we don't have to worry that much, that they read our hand. We won't get more than 1street of value from most of their hands anyways and imo they should be more likely to call a bet on the river than a bet on the turn. If one of them bets we can call, if we have the implied odds and if we hit on the river, we just open shove.

I don't agree with this, I think they are never folding 2 pair on the turn b/c they have a fullhouse draw, and they will not valuebet 2 pair themselves, so you are losing all value and get valuetowned by a 9x, b/c they will very rarely bluff in this spot.
If you check you give them a free shot to fill up their 2pair and get valuetowned.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

I don't agree with this, I think they are never folding 2 pair on the turn b/c they have a fullhouse draw, and they will not valuebet 2 pair themselves, so you are losing all value and get valuetowned by a 9x, b/c they will very rarely bluff in this spot.
If you check you give them a free shot to fill up their 2pair and get valuetowned.

Well, do you think, that they call a river bet /w 2pair again? I think, that it is more likely, that you only get 1 more street of value from worse hands and that it should be more likely to get it on the river (they might even call lighter on the river than on the turn, since you won't be able to bet again).
By checking I avoid, that they are able to just raise /w a straight and I have to fold my hand. If they bet, we can actually pot them on a straight and call for implied odds (if they are large enough).
Also if you check and the board pairs, you might be able to get away from your hand, if they raise, since they bet all their straights on the turn and they are unlikely to bluff raise the river...

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Well, do you think, that they call a river bet /w 2pair again? I think, that it is more likely, that you only get 1 more street of value from worse hands and that it should be more likely to get it on the river (they might even call lighter on the river than on the turn, since you won't be able to bet again).

While I don't expect them to call 2 potsized bets very often, I do expect them to call 2/3 pot turn and 1/2 pot river very often with 2 pair (they can easily talk themselves into calling thinking you got weaker 2 pair or aces).
I do not believe people at this limit, especially passive ones, are able to routinely make great folds with 2 pair+ on the river.

I'm not sure if they are more likely to call the river than the turn. I think that players on this level are playing only their own cards 90% of the time and not thinking about what you have and when they see 2 pair, atleast on the turn they got outs to improve to a fullhouse so that's why I'm not convinced you get a lighter call on the river than on the turn.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

By checking I avoid, that they are able to just raise /w a straight and I have to fold my hand.

These passive players won't bluff here so that is why bet/folding is so great. You can play perfectly when they raise.
Ofcours they could just call with a 9, but then they will probably min-reraise the river or something like that.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Also if you check and the board pairs, you might be able to get away from your hand, if they raise, since they bet all their straights on the turn and they are unlikely to bluff raise the river...

I don't think you can assume they bet all their straights on the turn. There are a lot of passive players that love to trap.

Because of that you can't eliminate a 9x from their range and will be priced in a lot of the time anyway.