100nl TPTK w/ Nut flush draw

[mxrider]

I've been playing a standard TAGish game so far on this table. Only 55 hands on villain but he has been playing rather rocky at 11/8 with a cold call of 10% and a 100% fold to cbet. What is our decision on the river here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($108.75)
MX (UTG) ($196)
MP ($63.15)
CO ($78.75)

Preflop: MX is UTG with K, A
MX bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14) 8, A, 3 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MX bets $10, 1 fold, SB calls $10, 1 fold

Turn: ($34) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, MX bets $19, SB calls $19

River: ($72) Q (2 players)
SB checks, MX ??

[given1982]

Check back. I doubt he's calling much with worse (does he even play AxJd or AxTd this way?), and he's very unlikely to fold 888 or better.

[kgu1]

A value bet here is too thin here. Sure, you could be getting value from 99 - JJ, but villain is never calling, especially with the Q on the river. The only hands that may call you is A9 - AJ, but that's a small part of his range. There are too many hands that beat you. Check back and hope for the best.

[zayphod]

I dont play this high MX but I am checking behind. I suspect he is on a flush draw himself though, but if he is not then the check could save you some $.

Even though 55 hands is not much you would have to be slightly concerned when the 100% fold to c-bet villain doesnt fold to your c-bet.

[Spinage]

The only hands he has that he stays to the river with and checks to you are busted draws imo, unless he's slowplaying some random set. So just check back, betting doesn't do anything.

[ShoveOrFold]

I've been going for some thin value lately, and here is a spot ill put in a gay bet like 6 dollars. If he has some weak sd value like a pair of Qs or some weak aces, or PPs, he might be tempted to just look u up getting such a good price, and expecting you to put in some bluffs with missed diamonds. Some ppl might be like "Oh im getting 11:1" i can call this and still break even. Also, alot of aces exepect to chop with the board paired and Q high.

I dont expect 11/8 to be able to sense weakness here and c/r without an 8.

[Tehsauce]

Originally Posted by ShoveOrFold

I've been going for some thin value lately, and here is a spot ill put in a gay bet like 6 dollars. If he has some weak sd value like a pair of Qs or some weak aces, or PPs, he might be tempted to just look u up getting such a good price, and expecting you to put in some bluffs with missed diamonds. Some ppl might be like "Oh im getting 11:1" i can call this and still break even. Also, alot of aces exepect to chop with the board paired and Q high.

I dont expect 11/8 to be able to sense weakness here and c/r without an 8.

$6 seems like a raise inducing bet that would force an even harder decision (assuming villain is a "decent" player). Check behind for safety sake.