A9 turns 2pr w/ flush completing BvB

[mxrider]

This is pretty early in the session and I hadn't seen villain do anything crazy so far. Is the turn a bet/fold or bet/call or should I c/c?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($397.55)
UTG ($187)
Button ($267.65)
Hero (SB) ($297.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 9
2 folds, Hero bets $8, BB calls $6

Flop: ($16) 3, 9, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

Turn: ($42) A (2 players)
Hero bets $27, BB raises to $79, Hero?

[given1982]

How did you get a 150bb stack without developing any reads or stats on this player? If he's aggressive postflop, I just shove a lot expecting him to call it off with an Ace with a club kicker a lot. You would expect him to raise a flush draw on the flop.

[TheDeKay]

Since I expect an unknown player at 200NL to defend his BB, I think hands like 98, A8, A3 are in his range often enough to make a shove profitable here.
He might even think, that you double barrel the A and make a light raise, since he can "rep" the flush.
He might have a straight draw as well and decided to go for a delayed bluff raise.

So I think, that we should be ahead here often enough to continue. So a shove is profitable here imo, but I would prefer a raise to something like 193$ and ship the rest on the river...

[mxrider]

Originally Posted by given1982

How did you get a 150bb stack without developing any reads or stats on this player? If he's aggressive postflop, I just shove a lot expecting him to call it off with an Ace with a club kicker a lot. You would expect him to raise a flush draw on the flop.

I got that deep as I hit a set in my first 5 hands so I really don't have a read at this point.

[kgu1]

This actually looks like a pure bluff imo. First let's rule out the types of hands he can have.

Sets are out of the question. I think BvB, he would've 3 bet you with 99 or 88 and even if he didn't, villain would have raised you on flop with a set since the board is quite fluid.

A flush is almost not possible here either. If he did have a flush draw on the flop, he also most likely had two overs to go with it, something like KTs, or QJs, etc. and would have reraised you to build the pot.
Now... I don't think villain is even semi-bluffing here with Ax of clubs here. His second card would have to be at least a Jack of clubs or higher, and BvB... I think he would have reraised you pre-flop with AJ-AK. He's never reraising you on that turn with a T of clubs or lower, because you could easily either already have the flush or have the redraw to a higher one. The only possible hand that semi-bluffs this is Kc9 here, but I think imo that is the only legit hand that semi-bluffs. His line then, just looks like complete air or he's playing a random two pair very strong. Either way, you have him crushed and I'd ship it in here.

Now... all this information could be very inaccurate depending on the player villain is, but just going by the "average" 1/2 player, this is what I think is going on.