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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2009, 05:52 PM
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Default Give a free card for the river?

Villain is playing an overall 18/14 with a 76 fold to steal and a 12% 3bet from sb vs button open. We get c/r on the turn w/ the nuts. We only fear the board pairing, so are we letting him bet into us on the river and flatting if the board pairs or are we shoving now??

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($215.30)
UTG ($205.80)
MP ($206)
CO ($130.35)
Hero (Button) ($206.20)
SB ($251)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 5
3 folds, Hero bets $6, SB calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14) 10, 3, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8

Turn: ($30) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $17, SB raises to $52, Hero ???
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Old 08-10-2009, 06:27 PM
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Without reads both plays are ok.
I think, a raise is good here, since we don't want another club to hit the board and scare a set or lower flush. And a shove could look like AcAx or so...
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Old 08-10-2009, 09:04 PM
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Bet a lot bigger on the flop and turn. If you had done that and gotten raised on the turn, I think it's a pretty easy shove. But with your weak bet-sizing, you've opened up some small possibility that he's bluffing. I doubt that he'd continue bluffing after you call the turn c/r though, so I guess shove as played too.
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Old 08-11-2009, 12:15 PM
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Sets and lower flushes are calling anyway and we're not really inducing any river bluffs by just calling, so we might as well ship it imo.

If villain would be a complete maniac, just calling would have some merit.

EDIT:
Actually, I think it's possible that somebody folds a set to a shove. Not likely tho.
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