Horrible river card, fire a blocking bet, and get raised..

[Silverthunder]

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($95)
UTG ($98)
MP ($662.91)
CO ($96)
Button ($249.34)
SB ($99)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J:diamond:, J:heart:
1 fold, MP bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, MP calls $6.50, Button calls $6.50

Flop: ($30.50) Q:club:, 7:diamond:, 9:spade: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks

Turn: ($30.50) J:club: (3 players)
Hero bets $21, MP calls $21, 1 fold

River: ($72.50) 8:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $31, MP raises to $62, Hero ????

Villain is extremely AGGRESSIVE. He is just running over people with aggression, stealing like crazy but it's not like at the lower limits when donkeys try that strategy. I am not saying that he is great but he is a somewhat solid L!A!G (exclamation points around the A). I mean, I am not very experienced in assessing these LAGs (rarely goes to showdown) but part of what is probably helping this guy is playing off people's fear of variance. Later in the night, there were definitely a couple of spots where like, it probably would have been profitable but I just didn't feel like getting it in (between preflop and postflop) with KTs 200 BB deep against his KQo- 53o range, or something crazy like that.

I fired my bet as a blocking bet to try to avoid him jaming pot as a bluff. Probably something crazy like 25% of all hands are in his range.

[chinz]

Raise more preflop. JJ is not really a hand strong enough that you'd want to induce calls and play 3way pot OOP, and you're not getting much to fold with that small 3bet when they are in position.

I don't really understand that ultra-small river bet, just shove the river yourself. If he has a T or flush here it's a cooler. I would bet a little more (like $23-26) on the turn, because I don't think that really affects his calling range too much and sets us up much better for a river shove. He will call you with AQ, worse sets and two pairs (if they are in his range and he somehow doesn't bet them on the flop).

As played, I don't really think anyone's crazy enough to make bluffs when you're getting this good odds to call. I think that the question is, would he valueshove hands like QJ over your blocker? I don't think he would and you even have blockers to top two, which make it even more unlikely that he's valueshoving worse hands.

I think we have to fold here, unless he's totally crazy...

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by chinz

I don't really understand that ultra-small river bet, just shove the river yourself. If he has a T or flush here it's a cooler. I would bet a little more on the turn, because I don't think that really affects his calling range too much and sets us up much better for a river shove.

He will call you with AQ, worse sets and two pairs (if they are in his range).

I didn't realize how little I had in my stack when I made that bet. I think that was part of my problem; I was like, here, let me be smart and fire a blocking bet and if I get raised it's an easy fold. Oh, wait, I am pot committed.. son of a..

If you are saying that this is a fold, then that bet size probably is a good move.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by Silverthunder

If you are saying that this is a fold, then that bet size probably is a good move.

I'm not too sure about that... but I don't think he'd be sick enough to bluff here ever (and he'd have to turn made hand into a bluff, there's no missed draws and I don't see him floating in 3way 3bet pots ever).

There's still some value in shove, but stack sizes are really awkward, I have to admit. With higher preflop bet sizing (and as effect of that, bigger pot by the river), river shoving would be easier. With that betsizing pre you really have to bet that turn a little bigger, because you really want to get your stacks in, and it's gonna be hard with that betsize.

[given1982]

Your preflop sizing is so weird (~16 would be a good size) that it distorts all the ranges.

Firing a blocking bet against a villain that you've identified as being good at attacking weakness is probably not a great idea.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by given1982

Firing a blocking bet against a villain that you've identified as being good at attacking weakness is probably not a great idea.

On the other hand I agree, but with those stack sizes it would be totally crazy to bluff shove.

I could see some crazy high stakes guys (DAEVILS!) do something like that as a bluff against another world class player, but I can't see someone who's "somewhat solid LAG" at NL100 ever trying to bluffshove this river.

[Spinage]

I don't even think you should worry about whether in this situation, this is a fold or a call, because you should never put yourself in this situation... (3bet bigger, probably cbet if its HU -which its more likely to be if you 3bet bigger), leaving you to get it in on turn (or put out a good bet: enough to make river easy)

As it stands, your hand is massively underepped and you have mentioned you havent seen many showdowns vs this agressive player (which means you folding a lot right? and he is probably noticing right?). You should just call.. and given makes a good point about not firing weak blocker bets against people who you know will pounce on weakness when you don't know what to do against a raise.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by given1982

Your preflop sizing is so weird (~16 would be a good size) that it distorts all the ranges.

Firing a blocking bet against a villain that you've identified as being good at attacking weakness is probably not a great idea.

ok, it should be a little bit bigger because I am up against 2 players, right? So something like 3.25x the orignal raise+ 1 original raise for each additional player that has called the raise already?

The blocking bet gets rid of the villain's perceived fold equity from shoving.

As it stands, your hand is massively underepped and you have mentioned you havent seen many showdowns vs this agressive player (which means you folding a lot right? and he is probably noticing right?). You should just call.. and given makes a good point about not firing weak blocker bets against people who you know will pounce on weakness when you don't know what to do against a raise. .

Most of those other hands were against other players. I don't think that I had gotten to the river with him before this hand..

It was a good point about the blocking bet. I guess that is a move against a passive player.

[chinz]

The blocking bet gets rid of the villain's perceived fold equity from shoving.

If you made a blocking bet so he wouldn't bluffshove over you... why are you thinking about calling?

[given1982]

Originally Posted by Silverthunder

The blocking bet gets rid of the villain's perceived fold equity from shoving.

No it doesn't. That's my point. Your bet screams weakness.