100NL: Villain c/r flop, leads out for 2x pot

[Silverthunder]

I didn't have any notes on the villain, 8^8^8^8. All that I know is that he showed up at all 4 of my tables maybe like 10 minutes before this hand.

What would you put this guy on?

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($157.53)
CO ($98.50)
Hero (Button) ($86)
SB ($45.30)
BB ($100.70)
UTG ($121.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K:spade:, 9:club:
3 folds, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, 8^8^8^8 calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 2:heart:, K:heart:, J:heart: (2 players)
8^8^8^8 checks, Hero bets $5.50, 8^8^8^8 raises to $17, Hero calls $11.50

Turn: ($41.50) A:spade: (2 players)
8^8^8^8 raises to $80.20 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $41.50

[urbansprawler]

Why did you call on the flop?

[chinz]

I agree with bet-folding the flop. You don't always have to bet-call with TP.

He has set of deuces or a small flush here almost always... And even if he has something like pair+Ah you're not really ahead of him even then (on the flop). You're also very NOT likely to get into showdown cheap if you call.

-> bet-folding is the best.

[urbansprawler]

If I ever call that flop with TP, it's probably with the Th+ and to get it in.

[Silverthunder]

I was going to bet fold but I thought that a lot of times at 100NL the villains are not that aggressive & they stop aggression after c/r. But yea, I guess it would really be a fluke to get to show down with no more money in.

[AdrienD]

dont like flop call; you have no reason to believe he will check/raise bluff this w complete misses.

you are either slightly ahead or way behind on flop imo.
im bet/folding here; and checking behind if I have reason to believe villain will check/raise this light.

I think his flop check/raising range as he is a regular at 100NL -who is most likely playing more than 4 tables- is KJ, KxQh, AhQx, (AxQh), (QT), 22, (Ahxh), 8h7h-Th9h, JxQh, AhTx and a very small % of random bluffs.

so your equity is around 32% on the flop:
Board: Kh Jh 2h

Wins Ties Equity
30.89% 0.77% 31.66% ( Kd9s )
67.56% 0.77% 68.34% ( 22,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KJs,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,AcQh,AdQ h,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AsQh,AcJh,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,AsJ h,AcTh,AdTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,AsTh,KcQh,KdQh,KhQs,KJo ,QhJc,QhJd,QsJh,QcTh,QdTc,QdTh,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,QsTc ,QsTh )

On the turn though, his betsize is a huge tell. he pretty much tells you he is scared of playing the river or thinks river will be though to play; and/or he doesnt know what to do if he bets and gets shoved on so he just shoves himself.

That means we can take out all nutflushes from his range and a lot of other flopped flushes too.

Im bored so made an estimation with pokerstove+Holdem ranger
Board: Kh Jh 2h Ad

Wins Ties Equity
3.73% 1.56% 5.30% ( Kd9s )
93.14% 1.56% 94.70% ( 22(67),KJs(80),8h7h(20),Th9h(20),8h9h(20),AcQh(20) ,AdQh(20),AhQc(40),AhQd(40),AhQs(40),AsQh(20),AhJc (20),AhJd(20),AhJs(20),AcTh(5),AdTh(5),AhTc(20),Ah Td(20),AhTs(20),AsTh(5),KcQh(50),KdQh(50),KJo(90), QhJc(20),QhJd(20),QcTd(20),QcTs(20),QdTc(20),QdTs( 20),QhTd(70),QsTc(20),QsTd(20) )

I think on the turn you have at best 9% equity vs his range.

[AdrienD]

oh just seen that hero isnt fullstacked which makes villains shoving range on turn a lil bit wider with more AQ/AT/QJ and more flushes in them.

I'm trying to find worst hand you should be calling turn with.. you need about 38% equity to call here.
I think KJ would be bad call, as would AxTh; but AhTx snapcall cause you have so many flush(-draw)blockers and the nut redraw yourself if behind; but Ah3x would be bad call cause you wouldnt have the gutshot that gives you that extra 3 outs which would give about 8% more equity.

AhTx would be very close though... AhQx snapcall cause you got redraws vs AJ

[Silverthunder]

So you guys would only call with better than top pair on the flop? top 2 pair would be okay?

On 2 tone, also, I am really struggling with dealing with c/r on the flop. It seems like donks will do it with even top pair hands. Donks also don't seem to do it with draws that often. I think we can often call with top pair good kicker vs. these players.

With regulars (slightly losing to the big winners), though, I don't think I know what range to call with. I know that we really need player notes for all of this but what do you guys think are good ranges. I wish I had a particular hand that I could post. Call with only better than top pair hands- like even bottom 2 is good?

[urbansprawler]

I've seen regs call my c/r's on dry boards with underpairs figuring I had a polarized range. Guess what...I had top pair and was using level 3 thinking.

Against villains who c/r a lot, you can semibluff 3-bet a wider range, knowing they can't look you up most of the time. If this is a good villain who doesn't abuse the c/r, it's going to be hard to give you a range.

[AdrienD]

usually top pair with good kicker call 1 or 2 streets depending;
call 3 streets or 4bet-call flop if you have good reads.

It really depends on the board imo.

If this was a Kxx board, snapcall w K9 cause then he cant have 2pair and these boards get check/raise bluffed more often in general.

A reg is always check/folding small-mid PPs on KJxs but check/raising or check/calling sometimes on Kxx.