NL200: bluffcatchers

[chinz]

Hand 1:
Poker hand played on unknown network with a pot size of $197 - Pokerhand.org

I had checked back some flops earlier, so the villain probably knows that this is the kind of boards I would check back on the flop.

My image was very aggressive on that table, I had been playing around 35/30/7 for something like 50 hands, and I had been barreling several times (not showing down 3 barrel bluffs tho). Actually I had been running very good, like turning set with underpairs etc, so I had taken some lines that look very bluffy earlier so most of my barrels and other weird lines weren't bluffs, but they probably looked very fishy.

Villain was something like 28/25/5 and he had given up several pots to me earlier when my line only makes sense for really-really narrow range...

So, the question is, will villain turn hands like small PPs into a bluff here often enough, that we can call the river... I don't really see him repping too much except for some sick slowplays or 99 exactly. Or am I simply over-estimating the effect that my image had on that table?

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Regardless of the outcome of this hand, what do you think about value-overbetting the river... as villain hands looks A LOT like either A high or small PP? Would it be bad to try and rep a bluff here by overbetting? Am I getting too much into leveling wars again?




Hand 2:
Poker hand played on unknown network with a pot size of $473.10 - Pokerhand.org

Villain is a very LAGgy regular, but from what I've seen his playing really good.

I'm almost sure, that he would float the flop with hands like gutshots etc, and he certainly is NOT stupid enough to raise this turn with something like 2 pair... But on the other hand, he is also capable of tricky stuff like raising strong draws on the turn.

With that said, you snapcall too, right?

[given1982]

1 - Preflop is pretty marginal. He's not repping much on the river, but not many 200NL regs are capable of c/r river bluffing. If you think he's a good, thinking player, I don't hate the call, but I think you may be overanalyzing stats over a small sample and a few hands against him.

2 - I don't like your sizing preflop and on the flop (too big). But yes, turn is a snapcall. The hands that beat you don't even really fit with the preflop action. I think he would be more likely to 3bet than flat JJ, 79s, or Q9s.

[Silverthunder]

hand 1
villain thinks you are really aggro so he could easily slow roll a set. Do you think a lot of these players are playing sm pps from the blinds; probably, yes? On the turn, he thinks that is a good card for you to rep.
On the other hand, Villain may not have wanted to check raise turn as a bluff because you might put him on draw & stack off if he wanted to make a pure bluff here..

We have to assume that even if villain is just looking at your stats, he knows Q in your range.
I think fold.

i agree w given on hand 2.

[chinz]

Thanks for the comments.

Originally Posted by given1982

1 - Preflop is pretty marginal.

SB was a huge fish (60/10 type) so I was playing pretty loose hoping to play pots with him.

I think you may be overanalyzing stats over a small sample and a few hands against him.

Yeah, this is my main concern. I don't know how much credit should I give to avarage NL200 regular (I assume) with little history. I'm confident that my bet-call is good if he's been following my play and is properly adapting, so the only question is whether he is or not.

Anyway, would you like a small overbet for value there? I don't think he would be stupid enough to check any Q (or flush, straight, set) on turn because my hands looks a lot like something I want to pot control the flop with.

At least a calling station like me would almost rather call a small overbet there with hand like 77 than something like 2/3 pot which just looks a lot like value.

2 - I don't like your sizing preflop and on the flop (too big). But yes, turn is a snapcall. The hands that beat you don't even really fit with the preflop action. I think he would be more likely to 3bet than flat JJ, 79s, or Q9s.

I agree with preflop betsize, I'm just getting too lazy to type 7, there's a button for 4bb on ongame. That's not a good excuse of course...

villain thinks you are really aggro so he could easily slow roll a set. Do you think a lot of these players are playing sm pps from the blinds; probably, yes? On the turn, he thinks that is a good card for you to rep.

No, I don't think so. Flop is twotone and has 3 to a straight. I would probably never check this without a hand and then try to bluff on later streets, just because any A high (because they have a gutter), any pair, and any 6x (probably only 66 in this case tho... maybe A6s) or any FD would call and/or raise here. When I open from UTG and he calls from his blinds, I think his range is pretty much weighted towards 22-TT and some stronger suited aces and maybe suited broadways. Against that range, I was planning to give up unless I hit a 6 outer.

When he checks again on the turn (and my hand probably does look a lot like pot control with something like A high) I am almost sure that I have the best hand.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by chinz

Anyway, would you like a small overbet for value there? I don't think he would be stupid enough to check any Q (or flush, straight, set) on turn because my hands looks a lot like something I want to pot control the flop with.

At least a calling station like me would almost rather call a small overbet there with hand like 77 than something like 2/3 pot which just looks a lot like value.

I think this takes a read too, that he makes hero calls. But that line would look quite bluffy.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by chinz

No, I don't think so. Flop is twotone and has 3 to a straight. I would probably never check this without a hand and then try to bluff on later streets, just because any A high (because they have a gutter), any pair, and any 6x (probably only 66 in this case tho... maybe A6s) or any FD would call and/or raise here. When I open from UTG and he calls from his blinds, I think his range is pretty much weighted towards 22-TT and some stronger suited aces and maybe suited broadways. Against that range, I was planning to give up unless I hit a 6 outer.

When he checks again on the turn (and my hand probably does look a lot like pot control with something like A high) I am almost sure that I have the best hand.

So you are saying that by him checking, he would make you think that you have the best hand with like A high. So you are saying if he leads out on the turn, it actually looks weaker. Maybe that is overthinking things at 200NL. If not, I guess these 200NL players are way ahead of the 100NL players that I play with.

edit: my fault, Chinz. I was actually in a session when I was typing that & just completely misunderstood.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by Silverthunder

So you are saying that by him checking, he would make you think that you have the best hand with like A high.

No. Most of his range is pocket pairs, (or ace highs!) here on the turn, so if I have A7 i have no reason to assume that my hand is best... but if I check the flop with A7 it would make completely zero sense for me to bet the turn with it, I'm never getting any better hand to fold anyway and it still has moderate showdown value here.

So you are saying if he leads out on the turn, it actually looks weaker. Maybe that is overthinking things at 200NL. If not, I guess these 200NL players are way ahead of the 100NL players that I play with.

WTF? I said the exact opposite. When I check the flop back as preflop raiser and he does not bet the turn, it just doesn't make any sense for him to have a hand better than top pair. Why the hell would he not bet QK or set here for value when it looks like I'm trying to get cheaply to the showdown? My line looks a lot more like pot control or giving up... it's not likely that I'm gonna bluff the turn after checking the flop.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by chinz

WTF? I said the exact opposite. When I check the flop back as preflop raiser and he does not bet the turn, it just doesn't make any sense for him to have a hand better than top pair. Why the hell would he not bet QK or set here for value when it looks like I'm trying to get cheaply to the showdown? My line looks a lot more like pot control or giving up... it's not likely that I'm gonna bluff the turn after checking the flop.

I think your perceived range on the turn is either A hi, weak draws, and some weak PPs or pairs. I would assume that when you check back that flop and you having such agro stats, that you very rarely even have a pair and because your image is agro & you look like you have nothing check/calling the turn with QK/QJ/AQ/55-JJ is ok imo. Though, we cant assume villain is thinking on this level.

I don't see villain check/raising AQ for value on the river and I also don't see villain check/calling the turn with a set and checking it again on the river, so the only hand he reps is a rare Q9s or 99;

I like a potsized bet to slight overbet on the river here, Id make a big overbet if I had reads villain can herocall;
In any case I think your river betsizing was too small.

I'd fold to the check/raise on the river, it just doesn't make any sense to turn a pp into a bluff because your hand is air or Qx+
and doesn't make any sense for a villain that can c/r rivers as a bluff to not bet the turn himself or check/raise the turn with draws; so eventhough he reps such a narrow range, I just don't see enough bluffs in his range without further reads.