Thoughts on this turn CRAI

[mxrider]

I only have 13 hands on villain so far so the stats don't mean a whole lot. He is currently playing 23/8/1 with 13 cold call preflop and 40% fold to cb. He also is playing less than full stack which makes me believe he is a weaker player overall.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($185)
Button ($63.40)
SB ($133.80)
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, A
1 fold, Hero bets $3.50, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 10, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, Button calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $10, Hero raises to $175.50 (All-In),

Thoughts?

[urbansprawler]

I like!

[given1982]

Your stats don't make any sense. If he has 23% VPIP over 13 hands, that means he has only voluntarily put money in the pot on 3 hands. But to have a fold to cbet percentage of 40, he would have been faced with at least 5 cbets.

But regardless of what the right stats are, I can't see why this line would be better than bet/call.

[Nostalgica]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

I like!

lol, you would, wouldn't you?

As to why it's good, I suppose this line is far better if villain stabs or bets to protect a lot more, allowing you to shove on weak pairs that may fold. It's also good if his fold to cbet is low, meaning he has lots of floats or weaker draws/gutshots. We have neither of these reads, but they may be true regardless. Also, if that is the case, AJ may be the best hand, and it allows you to see the river with it for free. It allows you also to draw for free if checked, and ship it in with a lot of FE if he stabs.

Believe it or not I think he has a decent amount of b/f in his range that beats you.

So all in all, I do not hate this line. b/c is fine too.

[TheDeKay]

I'm not sure, if we get that much FE by c/r him and he might check draws that we have beat behind.
So I prefer a normal bet here. We maybe get FE from pp, a T, a 4 (everything he is likely to check behind on the turn, since he seems passiv) and we get value from KJ, J9 and a FD (which again he is likely to check behind).

[Nostalgica]

Why do you think he's passive? He's much more likely to bet his draws which have less SDV than his weaker TP or MP hands, in any case.

[TheDeKay]

23/8/1 ... at least his first 13hands are passiv. And why not adjust to that, when it doesn't really cost us anything?

[Nostalgica]

Postflop and preflop aren't the same. I think you're making overly specific adjustments for small amounts of data/stats. Also even with those reads, it doesn't actually make b/c clearly a better option, since it means we can draw for free very often also.

[TheDeKay]

Just to bet/call is not really an adjustment imo. But the arguments I listed support this play quite a lot imo.
Why draw for free, when you can fold many hands that beat you? He might draw for free as well (and if he draws, he is likely to have the worse hand)... so why not punish him for drawing?

[Nostalgica]

When he's IP he's far less likely to expect us to raise OOP and also when we have the betting lead, especially when it is very likely we're just cbetting and we may have a lot of missed hands, so while he may not be good enough to know this, he is stabbing here with most of his draws. Finally, a C/R is better because it commits us and makes it easier to play. He will flat the turn to a normal bet a lot,without thinking about the river making it awkward for us not knowing if we should 3 barrel shove, whereas he will b/f the majority of his weak hands thinking that board is wet and a lot of scare cards can come, and then when he gets shoved on decide to fold OR call with us having decent amounts of equity. Remember, you said he's passive, so it's hard to interpret him calling 2 streets, and he may be a calling station vs "normal" bets but fold to shoves.

I don't think betting is bad, but c/r is def at least as valid.