Double barrel turn vs passive opponent 200bb deep

[mxrider]

Villain is playing 48/6/1.0 with a 44% cold call and a 52 fold to cb but folds to turn bets 50%. We flop a gutshot with a great board to cb. I decide to fire the turn as he floats pretty much everything. If he calls the turn, he is generally calling any bet on the river which I will give up on (unless we hit). Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($210.10)
MP ($194.20)
CO ($234)
Button ($110)
SB ($106.85)
BB ($103.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 6
Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12) 3, A, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $8, MP calls $8, 1 fold

Turn: ($28 ) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $17

I realize the turn bet is small, but in this spot, he is either folding or calling regardless of betsize. Does that change how you play this hand?

[urbansprawler]

Don't like this unless you plan to 3-barrel. He will call with too many draws/gutshots and you don't have enough equity.

[given1982]

As long as the fold-to-double-barrel stat is over a decent sample, this is pretty standard/good.

[Nostalgica]

I don't think this board is standard for a double barrel at all, but with your reads that he floats/peels light, this is fine. My reasoning is that he doesn't have a lot of mid pairs in his range that folds to a barrel, whereas on A8x there would be. Again, with reads, this is fine.

[podbelski]

Please take into account your image. His fold-to-2b might be 60% to anybody else at the table, but for you it's like 25%.

If he's so passive and calls too many bets I think checking the turn cannot be bad, and big overbet on the river if you (unlikely) hit.

[Nostalgica]

An overbet would be bad because we only get value from a 2 that way, so something like 1/2 pot exactly that a) gets raises from rare 2x, and gets calls by all pairs is good. He must be really stationy to overbet and hope to get called by non straights.

[TheDeKay]

I like it a lot! The 2cond barrel should fold many hands from his range...
We even have showdownvalue vs 56 :P

[mxrider]

Let's continue

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($210.10)
MP ($194.20)
CO ($234)
Button ($110)
SB ($106.85)
BB ($103.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, 6
Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12) 3, A, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $8, MP calls $8, 1 fold

Turn: ($28 ) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $17, MP calls $17

River: ($62) 5 (2 players)

Now we hit gin, options?

[Nostalgica]

30 30 30 30 30 please 30.

BET SHOVE.

[Nostalgica]

Wait, when you say passive in the title, do you mean he flats 1 card straights on this board?