100NL- AA on Super Wet board

[mxrider]

Villain is playing a pretty nitty style overall over 225 hands at 16/15/4.8 with a 5% cold call preflop. He has a 50% fold to cb and a 50% raise cb over 8 opportunities.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($115.40)
Button ($52.25)
SB ($64)
BB ($134.80)
UTG ($113.70)
MP ($101.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
2 folds, Hero bets $3, Button calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) Q, J, K (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button raises to $15, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($37.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($37.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls $22

Total pot: $81.50 | Rake: $3


Thoughts on this hand?

[Nostalgica]

He has Kx a lot on river because he may be the kind of player who raises top pair on wet boards because he should. That said your line isn't too bad, as folding the river without TOO much reads is hard and he can def have draws. So meh, it's okay.

[ourfarmpica]

I think he could have 9 10o or A10o maybe QKo and he bets for value on the flop, he checks behind on the turn its can be a trap... On the river it seems to be a value bet, after check the turn it wouldn't be a good move for a big bluff. I fold in this situation...

[urbansprawler]

Any K-x's in his range should be KQ, KJ, or KT and all three are highly unlikely to check the turn.

I like the call.

[given1982]

What's with villain's stack size? I probably just shove the flop.

[TheDeKay]

Just ship it!

Board: Kc Qs Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.732% 47.66% 01.07% 30669 690.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 51.268% 50.20% 01.07% 32301 690.00 { JJ, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo, KTo+, QJo, JTo }

[Nostalgica]

Oh yes, shipping is fine, of course. We have the all mighty back door royal flush draw.

[mxrider]

I think the biggest thing that I missed on this hand is his stack size. He only has a half stack and should have just shoved it right then. Villain ended up with KTs.