Limp/call, c/c, donk on turn????

[mxrider]

Not a lot of hands on villain (49) when this hand comes up. He's playing 54/17/8 with a 27% call raise and 50% fold to cb over 4 opportunities. I've been playing pretty tight so far.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($101)
UTG ($99)
Hero (MP) ($165.70)
CO ($39.65)
Button ($100)
SB ($49)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, J
UTG calls $1, Hero bets $4.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) A, 4, Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6

Turn: ($22.50) K (2 players)
UTG bets $15, Hero?????

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by mxrider

Not a lot of hands on villain (49) when this hand comes up. He's playing 54/17/8 with a 27% call raise and 50% fold to cb over 4 opportunities. I've been playing pretty tight so far.

Shippit?

[Padawan]

I think the best line is calling here, I dont see him calling a shove with worse and since we have position we can pot control a bit.

Whats his aggression factor? Obv plan is to call and then see what he does on the river.. depending on bet size and card that comes its probably going to be a fold.

You have been playing pretty tight and that flop hits your range pretty hard, and by calling the donk bet really narrows your range. I dont see him firing a river with anything you beat.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by Padawan

I think the best line is calling here, I dont see him calling a shove with worse and since we have position we can pot control a bit.

Whats his aggression factor? Obv plan is to call and then see what he does on the river.. depending on bet size and card that comes its probably going to be a fold.

You have been playing pretty tight and that flop hits your range pretty hard, and by calling the donk bet really narrows your range. I dont see him firing a river with anything you beat.

What hands in his range do you see ahead of us?

[Padawan]

Without answering your question urban, NOTHING he does this with calls a shove here that we have beat. so you are saying SHIP IT and I think thats the worse line ever.

His range could be A4, K4s, Q4s, KQ, 44, JT, and then hands we beat like weaker A's, KJ, KT, other pocket pairs... all of which fold to a shove. This is a situation where shoving is the worse possible move EVER.

Calling here is best and our range is very narrow at that point and he shouldnt be spew bluffing on the river.

So now please defend why you think blindly shipping it in EVERY time is actually good, cuz that seems to be your response to every hand... SHIP SHIP SHIP

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by Padawan

Without answering your question urban, NOTHING he does this with calls a shove here that we have beat. so you are saying SHIP IT and I think thats the worse line ever.

His range could be A4, K4s, Q4s, KQ, 44, JT, and then hands we beat like weaker A's, KJ, KT, other pocket pairs... all of which fold to a shove. This is a situation where shoving is the worse possible move EVER.

Calling here is best and our range is very narrow at that point and he shouldnt be spew bluffing on the river.

So now please defend why you think blindly shipping it in EVERY time is actually good, cuz that seems to be your response to every hand... SHIP SHIP SHIP

Calling here to fold river is the worst line.

Why in the world you call flop to fold river...Here is your equity

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.504% 67.72% 05.78% 971468 82948.50 { AJo }
Hand 1: 26.496% 20.71% 05.78% 297145 82948.50 { 44, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, Q4s, JTs, AJo-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, Q4o, JTo }

Even if you take out the pair-gutshot combos:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.531% 60.35% 08.18% 602227 81659.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 31.469% 23.29% 08.18% 232375 81659.00 { 44, AJs-A2s, KQs, Q4s, JTs, AJo-A2o, KQo, Q4o, JTo }


Stick to PLO imo.

[Padawan]

you are 100BB deep. Why is shoving good if we are ahead most of the time? if we shove we fold out all the hands we are ahead and ONLY get called by the hands that have us beat, therefore never get to realize the % in your example.

So shipping it in is never the correct option, and why cant we call $15 here and re-evaluate the river.. You dont have to make your river decision on the turn always, otherwise what makes us having position so great?

[TheDeKay]

Imo he could take this line /w KQ, JT, 44 and A4 for value and he could be value towning here himself /w some Ax. Maybe he has something like QJ as well and semi-bluffs his gutshot.
It's pretty much a way upfront/behind board, so I don't see why we should allow him to make a pretty easy decision by shoving.
If you think, that he is spewy enough to call here /w Ax, a shove is better than calling but against usual players I call the turn and either call or bet the river.

Edit: Or if he makes a smallish bet on the river, I might raise it.
Edit2: I'm very likely to call /w my very strong hands on the turn as well.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by Padawan

you are 100BB deep. Why is shoving good if we are ahead most of the time? if we shove we fold out all the hands we are ahead and ONLY get called by the hands that have us beat, therefore never get to realize the % in your example.

So shipping it in is never the correct option, and why cant we call $15 here and re-evaluate the river.. You dont have to make your river decision on the turn always, otherwise what makes us having position so great?

Because his turn betting range is practically the same as his river betting range and by "reevaluate" I don't understand what you're saying as there are 3 types of boards you will see:

1) a Jack
2) a Ten
3) a blank

Calling one street with non-drawing hands to fold if bet into on the next street is usually a huge leak and you can check your database to see I'm right.

To answer your question, position is great because of the concept of leverage and seeing your opponent act first, not because you can call and reevaluate. That's pretty lol imo as a reason as to why position is so important.

@Dekay: Pretty sure he stacks any A-x here, somebody that loose will never fold TP and probably not even second or third pair with a gutshot.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Edit2: I'm very likely to call /w my very strong hands on the turn as well.

Why would you ever slowplay this board?