River CRAI 200NL deep

[Qgel]

Was scanning through some hands I played in my spewier days and found one that I thought was pretty interesting.

Villain is a regular laggy guy sitting on like 12 tables. His stats were around 27/25 at the time with a 3bet from the BB at 12% over 130~ hands. He 3bet me a few times already and I had been folding so far. We had no other history besides that. One thing I noticed about his 3bets from seeing him showdown a hand was that he seemed to be 3betting a merged range in late position rather than a polarized one.

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $428.85
Hero (SB): $398
BB: $754.90
UTG: $153

Pre-Flop: K Q dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, BB raises to $24, Hero calls $16

Flop: ($48) 8 J Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $28, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($104) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($104) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $52, Hero raises to $346 and is All-In

Open to criticism

[chinz]

I think something like 220-250 is enough to fold two pairs, sets, 9x and I wouldn't expect anyone to make some huuuge laydowns.

So, I think raising to $250 or so saves you some money if he has a hand he's not folding.

[podbelski]

Why don't you just check-call the river?

[dluxe]

I don't like this play... check-call is better imo

[chinz]

Originally Posted by podbelski

Why don't you just check-call the river?

He's probably valuebetting most 2 pairs and any hand better than that, but his range doesn't have any hands that aren't complete bluffcatchers after they get raised on the river.

It is kind of player dependent, but I don't really think he's expecting to fold a top pair here when he bets, so I don't know how I feel about check-calling with KQ. Especially with his betsize, I really don't see any reason why'd he bet $52 to $104 on river, other than our hand being face up and he is valuebetting thin. Against unknown I'd be more likely to call if he bets $90 on the river, but when he bets just half pot, calling is probably the worst option, even if you're getting great price for your call. He isn't bluffing.

I don't expect villain to fold AK here regardless of our betsize, so that's why I think $220-250 is better raise size... It should be enough for him to fold 2 pairs, sets and 9x.

[podbelski]

Yes now at closer look I can't imagine worse hand that the villain could play like that... KQ/AJ maybe, trying to fold a split or get value from worse kicker, but that's definitely cannot be big part of his range.

So, it is more like check-fold or check-raise situation

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by chinz

He's probably valuebetting most 2 pairs and any hand better than that, but his range doesn't have any hands that aren't complete bluffcatchers after they get raised on the river.

It is kind of player dependent, but I don't really think he's expecting to fold a top pair here when he bets, so I don't know how I feel about check-calling with KQ. Especially with his betsize, I really don't see any reason why'd he bet $52 to $104 on river, other than our hand being face up and he is valuebetting thin. Against unknown I'd be more likely to call if he bets $90 on the river, but when he bets just half pot, calling is probably the worst option, even if you're getting great price for your call. He isn't bluffing.

I don't expect villain to fold AK here regardless of our betsize, so that's why I think $220-250 is better raise size... It should be enough for him to fold 2 pairs, sets and 9x.

Why would any of those hands check the turn...and bet a river like this? I never see two pair in his range, and his range looks like very polarized to me.

Thus, c/c or c/f is infinitely superior to c/r...which never folds a straight.

Given his flop sizing, it's very unlikely he has a set or 2pair as well.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Why would any of those hands check the turn...and bet a river like this? I never see two pair in his range, and his range looks like very polarized to me.

QT, JT, TT, possibly 8T.

which never folds a straight.

With OPs betsizing there's no way 9x would ever bet-call the river. I don't really think 9x would even call a $250 raise there.

I don't know how most of you people would play a flush here, but villain doesn't really have too many hands that would check behind the flop and call that river... and almost all those hands are betting the river (along with some bluffs every now and then) for value. So, I'm just saying that if we'd have a flush, there's a very high chance that we're going for check-raise on that river.

Same goes for the situation where we flat with AK preflop (with these stack sizes), we would play it exactly like this...

Given his flop sizing, it's very unlikely he has a set or 2pair as well.

Almost every 2 pair hand in his river valuebetting range hit second pair on the river T.




I think his valuebet-folding a ton here, but I'm not quite sure if he's doing it enough to justify making this huge bluff to win $156. But unless you have some sick read, calling that betsize on river is bad imo. Villain is expecting a call here.

I think c/f is the best, but I'm not sure if I like check-raising big or check-calling more.

[Qgel]

I'm surprised some of you are thinking check/call is a good play here. IMO that is by far the worst play one could make since he is not valuebetting worse ever and bluffing very very rarely given betsize and board texture. His line, however, is very consistent with a rivered 2pair, set of TTs, 9x and in rare cases AK. Rarely with AK because I expect him to often check it back on the flop since it's a horrible flop for his hand (unless he has a spade) and he would likely bet more with that since more worse stuff can call but can't be sure I guess.

Once I shove, even a 9x is a bluff catcher and to put me on a bluff he pretty much has to put me exactly on what I have - some made hand turned into a bluff.

I agree about the betsize, could save some money with a smaller raise

[given1982]

What were you going to do if he bet the turn?