100nl (Rush) 150bb eff. stacks flops top set

[mxrider]

Obviously, no reads on this guy. What do you do here on the turn?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($180.10)
Button ($106.75)
SB ($151.15)
BB ($137.85)
Hero (UTG) ($471.35)
MP ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, Button calls $3.50, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($11.50) 8, 10, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11.50, 1 fold, SB calls $11.50

Turn: ($34.50) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $34.50, SB raises to $69, Hero????

[tmiby]

snap shove for me 100% of the time.

if he has a straight, well he has one. (we still have some outs)

he does that with FD, lower sets, and two pairs (where 2 pair is actually my favorit...but this is just a feeling).

however, I'm pretty sure he expects you to have an over pair.
I shove this 100%.

[Colossos159]

Yes , i'm shoving but not too happy

[podbelski]

Really hard to fold this to possible 67/QJ, and you have not a bad equity to improve.

It is unlikely the 5 helped him making worse hand better than yours, so he is either still behind with underset/2pair/overplayed pair, or turns made hand to bluff or semi-bluffs with a draw (maybe combodraw).

I would call, intending to call a river as well (not happy to see rivered 7/J/club, but won't fold). I like shoving too, but don't think it is better than calling.

[given1982]

Call. You're getting direct odds to draw to your 10 outs.

[tmiby]

Originally Posted by given1982

Call. You're getting direct odds to draw to your 10 outs.

I dont' get it..why call when we wont fold on later streets?? (podelski described a similar line).

what do you do, when a J or a club comes on turn...(I guess we call anyway)
it seems like we are just having a hard time when we choose a call-line on the flop.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by tmiby

we wont fold on later streets??

Why not? If he shoves on the river after c/r'ing that turn (when we pot 2 streets on a board like that), it is very very unlikely that he is valuebetting worse hands.

Folding the river would kinda make me feel bad, because there's a tiny possibility he has a set and we're given such a good odds... I really don't know, it is kind of a sick spot. If we know villain is a good regular who understand that he shouldn't raise hand like 88 here (or at least shove the river with it after we call) then I feel somewhat comfortable calling the turn and check-folding on the river unimproved. But in a rush game where villain probably is unknown, I'm not really sure about the river. It is close spot on the river if we don't improve and tbh I wouldn't laugh at someone folding, but because I'm a station and I want to see villains' QJ because it's so beautiful hand, I'd probably call.

He shouldn't be raising with hand like bottomset on that turn at least with those stacks... There is a small chance he is bluffing (but our bad face up betsizing makes it less likely imo) and if we think he is we should just call and call the river.

If I was villain and mxrider would be potting this board twice against me, I would probably just check/call down with hand like 76 (well, I would raise him on the flop like 100% of the time, so I wouldn't be in this turn situation), and fold if he bets big on river club or board pairing card. I'm not saying villain would play like that because they probably don't know how mxrider is playing...

he does that with FD, lower sets, and two pairs (where 2 pair is actually my favorit...but this is just a feeling).

With our betsizing, I would probably check-fold weaker 2 pairs as villain (not T9 but mx is blocking 2/3 of his Tx combinations). I don't really see him raising any 2 pair ever on the turn.

however, I'm pretty sure he expects you to have an over pair.
I shove this 100%.

If he expects us to have an overpair, shoving 2 pairs here would be awful. Nobody's expecting overpair to bet-call the turn.... Actually when it's 3way on the flop, there's a small chance that top pair would check back the turn and call (or bet) the river.