100nll (rush) Bottom set oop 275bb deep

[mxrider]

I bet/3b this flop as I felt there was a strong liklihooed that this flop hit the original raiser and it is sooooo drawy. When button raises my lead, how much should I be raising? Then, what do you do on this horrible turn?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($161.40)
CO ($117.45)
Button ($340.95)
SB ($214)
Hero (BB) ($276.45)
UTG ($131.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
1 fold, MP bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) A, 10, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $8, MP calls $8, Button raises to $16, Hero raises to $38, 1 fold, Button calls $22

Turn: ($95) J (2 players)
Hero ???????

[tmiby]

wow, this is definitly a hard one.

I would raise flop much bigger. He minraised, and your 3bet is almost min! That almost invites him to draw, cause your stacks are so deep!
I raise to about 50 - 60.

However, this is about the worst turn ever!
Damn, I just don't see b/c or b/f here.

I tend to c/c (depending on his betsize).
I don't think villain bets any worse hand. I guess if he bets we can call and hope for a boat on the river.

If someone can do the maths, how much we can pay here to see a river- I would be very interested in that. Are we already drawing too slim?

I'm interested how that turns out...

[TheDeKay]

Rly hard to tell you anything without any knowledge of him...
Raise more on the flop.

On the turn I'm not rly sure, if we should go for a 1/3-1/2pot bet/fold, c/c or c/f (depending on his bet size).

The problem I have with a c/c of a 1/2 (or more) pot bet is: We basically have to fold on the river, if we don't improve, but it's very hard to get more money in the pot, if we improve.
If we choose the bet 1/3-1/2 pot option, he might just call with a flush or straight so we can draw for a cheap prize. And it's easier to get money in the pot, if we improve...

[podbelski]

I agree with flop raise size should be bigger (close to 50, +-).

Suppose he has a flushdraw(or 78) on the flop - he is more likely flat with it having great odds, or raise much bigger to get FE. IMO it is a mistake to raise so smal with fdraw, though it is possible he thinks otherwise.

Then, pocket jacks raising to see where he is at, unlikely, and even more unlikely to call your 3b.

Pocket TT - possible raise, but strangely small size again, and why would he call a 3b with it? Only to make sure clubs won't hit the turn, so in this case bet the turn and he will call rather than raise you (IMO this is the most likely hand if he beat you).

TBH, his flop actions make me think it is AK/AQ with a club, or AT/A9/T9. So, the turn is safe in this case.

Expecting you will continue the thread telling us what happened on the turn
I'd bet the turn keeping above in mind, and do not expect to get raised. If he raises then it is very sick, cause either he makes a move, or he somehow beat you. The only hand you beat that can raise you like that is AxKc...
IMO, 65-70 bucks would be enough to bet the turn and stick in the safe river.

[tmiby]

Originally Posted by podbelski

I'd bet the turn keeping above in mind, and do not expect to get raised. If he raises then it is very sick, cause either he makes a move, or he somehow beat you.

I thaught about the same thing..but I think, even if he has nuts...not sure if he will raise it there. probably it's cheap for us to bet like 30-40% on turn. he will wold Ax hand that didn't improve and if he calls, I think we're beaten but we can draw for a good price.

thedekay, you say "but it's very hard to get more money in the pot, if we improve"...
I'm not sure about that. pot will be somewhat big on river. and if he really had a hand on turn that beats us on the turn (straight or flush)...I belive we will get another bet out of him when we hit our boat. The pot is just to big that he could fold such a strong hand...

[mxrider]

My main reason for the small 3b here is that if we go to something like $50-$55 and he jams, can we really let this go? Against a jamming range, I can see the following:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,930 games 0.005 secs 1,386,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 9c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.278% 39.28% 00.00% 2722 0.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 60.722% 60.72% 00.00% 4208 0.00 { TT, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc }

Now if we take the following range to what he can call the 3b with we get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.005 secs 3,762,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 9c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.533% 67.53% 00.00% 12703 0.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 32.467% 32.47% 00.00% 6107 0.00 { TT, ATs-A9s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, ATo-A9o }

Now, the above includes hands he would Jam the flop with also so let's back those out (QJs and TT mainly) and we get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14,850 games 0.005 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 9c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.694% 80.69% 00.00% 11983 0.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 19.306% 19.31% 00.00% 2867 0.00 { ATs-A9s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, ATo-A9o }


So I truly think this is his true range here as it just makes sense currently. Anyone disagree? When we add the turn card in with this range we get the following which is actually surprising to me:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

616 games 0.005 secs 123,200 games/sec

Board: Ac 9c Th Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.435% 77.44% 00.00% 477 0.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 22.565% 22.56% 00.00% 139 0.00 { ATs-A9s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, ATo-A9o }

[podbelski]

One question to mxrider, do you play KcJc/KcQc the way he did? I mean minraise the flop (calling smallish 3bet is ok after that). The size of a raise indicates a made hand IMO, rather than draw.

[TheDeKay]

It's hard to say, if he minraises /w a FD on the flop or not. A line of thought to support minraising /w a flushdraw: "If I minraise, they are likely to check it to me on the turn so I can see turn and river for a cheap prize" or "If I minraise, it might not look like a flushdraw so I get value if I hit" or something like that... Maybe he heard just to be aggressive with draws. So hard to say if he has a FD or not without any read.

@ mx: If he's a bad player, than it's easy to get more money in, yes. But since he is pretty deep I guess he's somewhat solid and since your hand rly, rly, rly looks like a FH if you c/c turn and donk or c/r a paired board... I dumped a flush in a spot like that and usually I'm rly a huge station.

[podbelski]

And? What was happened on the turn?

[mxrider]

I checked the turn and he checked behind. River came a 9 giving me quads. Pot is now $95, Hero?