Middle set deep facing a lot of heat

[Qgel]

villain is 29/9/2.2 over 78 hands. Haven't seen him get out of line thus far, my image is pretty abc tagish, no relevant history.

What's our plan for the hand?


Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $173.70
UTG: $239.05
Hero (MP): $372.90
CO: $109
BTN: $401.25
SB: $200

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($25) 9 Q J (4 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, CO calls $18, BTN raises to $97, BB folds, Hero ??

[mxrider]

Well, let's see what types of hands can play this this way:

Obv KT, 99, QQ (doubt he would flat here pre) Th9h, TT, Ah9h, JT, QJ and total air. He's obviously not folding and is willing to get it in and with only being behind 2 of those possible hands, I think we just put it in as we have outs to fill up if behind.

[Qgel]

You left out T8s for some reason
I think it's unlikely that this somewhat passive opponent would raise combo draws 200bbs deep . I disagree that he ever has air here or hands like 9T/JT/QT. I expect him to just call all his draws except perhaps absolute monsters like 9Thh or AThh against which we're flipping anyway. Not sure whether he would overplay a weak 2pair this way either but I guess it's possible

I pokerstoved some likely ranges and it seems that I should be around 50/50 against his range or even slightly behind. Meh @ coinflipping for 200bbs.

[TheDeKay]

An AF of 2.2 is pretty aggro imo...
We might get FE from draws that are suddenly scared to get it in;
It's unlikely that he has QQ (even with a PFR of 9 he should squeez pre most of the time) so we are never dead;
So his strongest range should look like:

Board: Qh Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.536% 48.58% 00.96% 5290 104.50 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 50.464% 49.50% 00.96% 5391 104.50 { 99, KTs, T8s }

So folding is bad for obvious reasons. Calling will be a pain on sooo many turn cards (any h, K, T, 8) and on a blank it will be ugly to play.

So I don't see any reason, why we should not shove here. There is already enough money in the pot to make flipping ok even against his strongest range - and if he raises any kind of hand other than those 3 we are a fav...

Playing on scared money?

[chinz]

We are probably flipping against his range and there's some decent overlay, let's gambööööl and have the board come running 6 6 one time...

If board would be something like 789 instead (and we had mid set), we'd probably had to be a bit worried that he could possibly have top set sometimes, but on this board you don't have to be worried about drawing 1 out away from dead.

Sure, huge majority of the time you are getting it in as an underdog here, but also 55-45 flipping and 90-10 favorite against bottomset.

[mxrider]

I put the following range in and was a bit surprised to see us behind this much:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28,710 games 0.005 secs 5,742,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Qh Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.421% 39.66% 00.77% 11385 220.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 59.579% 58.81% 00.77% 16885 220.00 { QQ, 99, AhKh, Ah9h, KTs, Th9h, T8s, KTo }


If we eliminate AK and QQ due to him not 3betting here, but add in all other nut flushdraws which I think is more representative of this we get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Qh Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.269% 49.63% 00.64% 16215 208.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 49.731% 49.09% 00.64% 16039 208.00 { 99, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs, Th9h, T8s, KTo }

Now if we include AK and QQ in his flatting pre range for a full range of hands:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

36,630 games 0.005 secs 7,326,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Qh Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.106% 46.41% 00.70% 16999 256.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 52.894% 52.19% 00.70% 19119 256.00 { QQ, 99, AhKh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs, Th9h, T8s, KTo }

We are flipping a good amount of the time and might have some fold equity as well with some of the flushdraws. With the amount of money in the pot, I still say a shove is +EV.

[Qgel]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Playing on scared money?

Nah I'm a bankroll nit rolled even for 400NL but swinging like crazy lately so not feeling confident enough to move up.

Guess I'm just being a little results oriented after getting shown the nuts time and time again in close spots like this. But really it seems we just can't do anything but stick it in.

What if we were 250 bbs deep? 300bbs?

[mxrider]

Originally Posted by Qgel

What if we were 250 bbs deep? 300bbs?

When we start to get deeper, I would likely flat here and c/f the turn if we don't boat up.