rivered nut flush on paired board 3way

[Qgel]

CO is 22/17/3.3, WTSD% 18 over 430 hands,
BTN is 25/2/3 WTSD% 30 over 60 hands

Rivered a pretty obvious draw but it also paired the board, we have less than a PSB left behind. What's our play?

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $245.25
BTN: $193
SB: $159
BB: $311.60
Hero (UTG): $200
MP: $382

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $6, MP folds, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($21) 3 Q 6 (3 Players)
Hero bets $16, CO calls $16, BTN calls $16

Turn: ($69) J (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $44, BTN calls $44, Hero calls $44

River: ($201) J (3 Players)
Hero ???

[TheDeKay]

The turn is an interesting spot to shove, since we have a pretty strong draw and there is already so much money in the pot. The villains need to fold like 30% of the time for us to break even (if we have 23% equity against their calling range = they only call with sets). Calling is fine as well since we get the right odds - but shoving turn is interesting, since we will fold some pairs a good amount of the time I think.

As played we maybe should just donk-shove. Can't see us folding here and many weaker hands will check behind.

[Qgel]

Hm looking back a turn shove does look kinda cool. But doesn't our hand look kinda exactly what it is ? and the CO always has a strong TP or better to be able to bet with that passive fishy guy left to act behind him. I'd like to keep that guy in the pot if he has a worse draw too.

[urbansprawler]

C/r AI turn maybe? Seems aggressive but I think it's best. On river, donk-shove looks so transparent I doubt anything worse can call you, but you can c/r AI here as well.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

On river, donk-shove looks so transparent I doubt anything worse can call you, but you can c/r AI here as well.

Of course it is transparent - but it's better than checking imo, cause basically all hands (exept worse flushs) that we beat are very likely to check behind. And we stack off vs a FH anyways.

Well, about the turn c/r... if you never check /w your overpairs+ in that spot, you might want to bet the turn instead of c/c.

[chinz]

The donkshove sure looks transparent, but if one of them has lower flush he'll just call anyway, and sometimes you see something stupid like KQ here calling.

The problem with checking is that they're not really betting any worse hands (except flushes) here for value... If you shove yourself, at least there's a chance you get called by some other worse hand too.

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

but you can c/r AI here as well.

No, you can't (stack sizes).

[urbansprawler]

Donk shove gets called by such a narrow range that you beat there's almost no value in it. I didn't notice the sizes, but I would c/c then. Both opponents look reggy and we have both the Ad and Kd so I don't see many opponents chasing to the river with 87dd. Blocker betting the turn actually seems like the best idea now that I think about it

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Donk shove gets called by such a narrow range that you beat there's almost no value in it.

Yeah, a good player is probably never calling without a flush here. But if you are check/calling, what hands are you expecting them to bet (that they wouldn't call a donkshove with).

A lot of people (even winnings regs) are calling here regardless with something like KQ when you donkbet, they're like "whatever, I only have to win 25% of the time to breakeven".

I used to think donkbetting rivers (when it's obvious that you hit your draw) is bad, but after seeing like 1000 awful bluffcatches from decent regulars, I've changed my mind.

[Nostalgica]

I think it is fairly close. I'd usually make this decision based on reads, and stack sizes. I don't think it's a huge deal which play you choose readless.

[MOJO_ERASER]

SHoving with hopes of catching a diamond? No way they are not calling you already putting such large amounts of money in. I would value bet the river. Value bet the river is the play.