AA against loose passiv / cbet gets raised

[tmiby]

Villain is 35/9/1.6 over ~50hands.
I guess raising for protection is best. How much?
Or do you consider a call?

[urbansprawler]

Shippet, this is a conservative range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.048% 52.05% 00.00% 11336 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 47.952% 47.95% 00.00% 10444 0.00 { 66-55, ATs, 9h8h, 9h7h, 87s, 7h5h, 65s, 5h4h, ATo }

Here's a good range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.678% 67.68% 00.00% 40871 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 32.322% 32.32% 00.00% 19519 0.00 { TT, 66-55, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, 9h8h, 9h7h, 87s, 7h5h, 65s, 5h4h, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }

[tmiby]

Of course, I'm never folding here.


3 things I thought about:

1) If I ship it, he will fold very often.
2) a min 3bet leaves him the option to shove
3) calling and shove turn might looks weaker and he calls more often...


I decided to ship.

[urbansprawler]

What I don't like about min 3-betting or calling to shove turn is that they leave him the option to fold on bad turn cards. Also, most of your equity comes from worse TP's, not draws.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by tmiby

1) If I ship it, he will fold very often.
2) a min 3bet leaves him the option to shove
3) calling and shove turn might looks weaker and he calls more often...

1) I'm happy, if he is raise-folding draws I don't think, that he has too many TP-hands in his range (and if he has, I don't think, that he is raise-folding them very often, since we could have a draw...)
2) Actually a min3bet looks way stronger than a shove in my eyes. But if you think, that he is more likely to stack off with weaker hands... go for it. He is commited, if he calls the 3bet and if we shove turn he gets direct odds with draws.
3) donk-shoving always looks strong...

[urbansprawler]

I'm not sure but I think after he ship him folding draws is an even bigger mistake than calling with them.

@Dekay: Villain is a total retard, KT/AT is probably the same as TT to him.

[TheDeKay]

Yes, but we block 2 Aces. And I don't know, if he would raise T9 or something like that, since he seems only moderate aggressive.
But it's still a ship of course. If we think, that there's a better way to extract value... we can try it, but shipping is the best play without any special reads in my opinion.

[podbelski]

For me, it is tempting to try to get away from aces if he hits his draw, like call and see what turn brings. The problem is it is hard to say which card definitely improves his hand to the best, so I'd better shove it on the flop and hope for the best. I mean, I do not want to see the turn unless my moneys are in already.

I'm not happy about this ship TBH, maybe this is my problem - seeing monsters all around But I see him doing this with 2pair+ more likely than with normal draw (OE or weak flushdraw + like gutter) or Tx hand.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by podbelski

For me, it is tempting to try to get away from aces if he hits his draw, like call and see what turn brings. The problem is it is hard to say which card definitely improves his hand to the best, so I'd better shove it on the flop and hope for the best. I mean, I do not want to see the turn unless my moneys are in already.

I'm not happy about this ship TBH, maybe this is my problem - seeing monsters all around But I see him doing this with 2pair+ more likely than with normal draw (OE or weak flushdraw + like gutter) or Tx hand.

There's 9 combos of reasonable 2 pairs, that's so small I wouldn't worry about it all.

Also, you can't call to fold on a heart turn because you have the Ah and are pretty much committed to the pot no matter what the turn card.

[podbelski]

If we assume the villain plays 100% of his flop-hitting range by raising the cbet, then I agree it's a happy ship. I was saying that no matter how large the number of hands you beat he's more likely to play them passively instead of raising, if he's loose passive player.